Watch for dovish language at Poland's MPC meeting

Today's Poland's MPC meeting is likely to see rates left unchanged at 1.5%. But a significantly more dovish remarks is expected at today's press conference. Poland's PMI has slipped to just above 50 now and growth prospects have abruptly weakened, with forecasts for 2016 dropping to c.3% from c.3.5%. 

The country's inflation is taking on a softer trend: following the weakening of the Chinese economy in recent months, Poland's own weekly energy price data show deeper price deflation, with the energy category dampening CPI by almost 1pp per month now.

Such developments are likely to pre-occupy the MPC this month and MPC doves is expected to begin to call for fresh rate cuts. If the expectation proves correct, such a development will pressure EUR-PLN upward, argues Commerzbank.