Weak April exports should further raise the likelihood of a BoK rate cut in May

A further weakness is expected in Korea's exports in April given the sizeable year-on-year decline in exports in the month up to 20 April. 

Societe Generale sees a decline in exports from USD 47.0bn in March to USD 46.0bn in April, while imports are likely to rise slightly from USD 38.6bn to USD 39.0bn thanks to a mild rebound in crude oil prices. 

The slowdown in exports should also lead to a slight decline in the trade surplus. Weak April exports will be bad news for the Q2 GDP outlook and will further raise the likelihood of a BoK rate cut in May.