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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

US Election Series

US under Trump Series

US election final results: how Trump won

Dec 17, 2016 15:00 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the US election held on 8 November, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton. While this seems a convincing victory, Trump won four states by 1.2% or less:...

Briferendum Series

Coalition likely to win following Brexit

Jun 28, 2016 20:49 pm UTC| Politics Insights & Views

The UKs vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) was known by the afternoon of the 24 June Melbourne time. The ReachTEL and Galaxy polls in the table were both taken entirely before the Brexit result was known. The one...

US Election Series

Clinton clinches Democratic nomination after big wins in New Jersey and California

Jun 08, 2016 11:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Hillary Clinton today clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination, following big wins in the two highest population states voting. She won New Jersey (126 pledged delegates) 63-37 and California (475) 56-43. She also...

UK elections: Labour wins London mayoralty, but otherwise mixed

May 13, 2016 09:50 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Elections were held in the UK last Thursday. At stake were the Scottish and Welsh assemblies, the Mayoralty of London and control of 124 English councils. Labours Sadiq Khan is the new Mayor of London, after defeating...

Election explainer: what are the opinion polls and how accurate are they?

May 12, 2016 00:17 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Business

Many opinion polls will be published during the election campaign. Most use either live phone polling (calls made by a human), robopolling (computer calls) or an online panel (poll sample selected from a large database of...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton crush opponents in northeast

Apr 27, 2016 22:40 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, Donald Trump won majorities of the vote across all five northeastern states that voted. He won 64% in Rhode Island, 61% in Delaware, 58% in Connecticut, 57% in Pennsylvania and 54% in Maryland. Prior to getting 60%...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton have emphatic wins in New York

Apr 21, 2016 00:23 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Yesterday, Donald Trump won over 60% of the vote in his home state of New York. John Kasich was a very distant second with 25%, and Ted Cruz third with under 15%. Trumps massive vote majority gave him all 14 statewide...

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Economy

German Auto Suppliers Turn Bearish as Investment and Jobs Shift Overseas

Germanys automotive suppliers are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the industrys outlook, with more companies expecting business conditions to worsen over the next 12 months than those anticipating improvement. A...

Asian Currencies Steady as Dollar Holds Firm Ahead of Fed Decision and US-Iran Deal Details

Most Asian currencies traded in a narrow range on Wednesday, while the U.S. dollar remained stable as investors awaited further details on a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement and the outcome of the Federal Reserves...

Oil Prices Ease as Markets Weigh U.S.-Iran Peace Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening

Global oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous two sessions as investors continued to evaluate the impact of a newly announced U.S.-Iran peace agreement. However, uncertainty surrounding the...

Asian Stocks Advance as Nikkei Nears Record High Ahead of Fed Decision

Asian stock markets mostly moved higher on Wednesday, led by gains in Japan and Singapore, as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserves latest policy decision. Strong performance in technology and semiconductor stocks...

ASX Proposes New Share Dilution Limits for Public Takeovers

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) has unveiled significant proposed reforms aimed at strengthening shareholder protections and limiting share dilution during public takeovers and mergers. Under the draft rules...

Politics

Jamaica in Talks With U.S. to Accept Third-Country Deportees Under New Migration Agreement

Jamaica is negotiating a new migration agreement with the United States that would allow the Caribbean nation to temporarily receive third-country migrants deported by U.S. authorities, according to Deputy Prime Minister...

Trump Criticizes Israel's Lebanon Strikes, Urges Greater Civilian Protection

U.S. President Donald Trump publicly criticized Israels military operations in Lebanon, questioning the necessity of destroying entire apartment buildings while targeting Hezbollah militants. Speaking during the G7 summit...

Russian Strikes Kill Four in Eastern and Southeastern Ukraine, Trigger Fires and Damage

Russian attacks on cities in eastern and southeastern Ukraine killed at least four people and injured several others late Tuesday, according to local officials and prosecutors. The latest wave of strikes highlights the...

Brazil Supreme Court Convicts Eduardo Bolsonaro Over U.S. Lobbying Efforts

Brazils Supreme Court has convicted Eduardo Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, for seeking foreign interference in legal proceedings involving his father. In a unanimous decision on Tuesday, a...

US-Iran Ceasefire Deal Extends Peace Talks and Eases Oil Trade Restrictions

The United States and Iran have reached an interim agreement aimed at extending peace efforts in the Middle East and reducing tensions following months of conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the deal...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Chinese Social Media Giant Xiaohongshu Eyes Hong Kong IPO at Over $70 Billion Valuation

Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu, internationally known as RedNote, is reportedly preparing for a Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO) that could value the company at more than $70 billion. According to a Wall...

Samsung Gains Interest from BYD, Google, AMD as AI Chip Demand Strains TSMC Capacity

Samsung Electronics is attracting growing attention from major global technology companies as demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing continues to exceed available capacity at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co....

Kingboard Holdings Shares Surge After HK$11.77 Billion Block Trade to Expand PCB and AI Supply Chain Business

Kingboard Holdings Ltd. (HK:0148), one of Chinas leading circuit board and laminate manufacturers, announced on Wednesday that its subsidiary, Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (HK:1888), has entered into a block trade...

SoftBank Shares Drop as OpenAI Losses and Rising Costs Spark Investor Concerns

SoftBank Group Corp. (TYO: 9984) shares fell sharply on Wednesday after new reports highlighted growing concerns about OpenAIs financial performance and increasing cash burn, raising questions about the value of SoftBanks...

G7 Explores AI Access Deal With U.S. Amid Anthropic Restrictions

Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations are discussing a proposal that could give selected trusted partners access to advanced artificial intelligence models developed by U.S. companies such as Anthropic, according to...
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