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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

US Election Series

US under Trump Series

US election final results: how Trump won

Dec 17, 2016 15:00 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the US election held on 8 November, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton. While this seems a convincing victory, Trump won four states by 1.2% or less:...

Briferendum Series

Coalition likely to win following Brexit

Jun 28, 2016 20:49 pm UTC| Politics Insights & Views

The UKs vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) was known by the afternoon of the 24 June Melbourne time. The ReachTEL and Galaxy polls in the table were both taken entirely before the Brexit result was known. The one...

US Election Series

Clinton clinches Democratic nomination after big wins in New Jersey and California

Jun 08, 2016 11:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Hillary Clinton today clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination, following big wins in the two highest population states voting. She won New Jersey (126 pledged delegates) 63-37 and California (475) 56-43. She also...

UK elections: Labour wins London mayoralty, but otherwise mixed

May 13, 2016 09:50 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Elections were held in the UK last Thursday. At stake were the Scottish and Welsh assemblies, the Mayoralty of London and control of 124 English councils. Labours Sadiq Khan is the new Mayor of London, after defeating...

Election explainer: what are the opinion polls and how accurate are they?

May 12, 2016 00:17 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Business

Many opinion polls will be published during the election campaign. Most use either live phone polling (calls made by a human), robopolling (computer calls) or an online panel (poll sample selected from a large database of...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton crush opponents in northeast

Apr 27, 2016 22:40 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, Donald Trump won majorities of the vote across all five northeastern states that voted. He won 64% in Rhode Island, 61% in Delaware, 58% in Connecticut, 57% in Pennsylvania and 54% in Maryland. Prior to getting 60%...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton have emphatic wins in New York

Apr 21, 2016 00:23 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Yesterday, Donald Trump won over 60% of the vote in his home state of New York. John Kasich was a very distant second with 25%, and Ted Cruz third with under 15%. Trumps massive vote majority gave him all 14 statewide...

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Economy

EU Delays Mercosur Free Trade Agreement Signing Amid Ukraine War Funding Talks

The European Union has decided to delay the formal signing of its long-anticipated free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc, as EU leaders convened in Brussels to prioritize discussions on funding Ukraines war effort....

Precious Metals Rally as Silver and Platinum Outperform on Rate Cut Bets

Gold prices edged slightly lower in Asian trading on Friday but were still on track to post modest weekly gains, as strong safe-haven demand continued to support the precious metals market. At the same time, silver and...

Oil Prices Steady in Asia but Headed for Weekly Loss on Supply Glut Concerns

Oil prices were mostly steady during Asian trading on Friday, but both major benchmarks were still on track to record a second consecutive weekly decline as persistent concerns over a global supply glut continued to...

New Zealand Business Confidence Hits 30-Year High as Economic Outlook Improves

New Zealands business confidence surged sharply in December, reaching its highest level in three decades, according to the latest ANZ Bank Business Outlook survey released on Friday. The data highlights growing optimism...

BOJ Poised for Historic Rate Hike as Japan Signals Shift Toward Monetary Normalization

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to raise interest rates to a three-decade high, marking another milestone in its gradual exit from ultra-loose monetary policy. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Friday,...

Politics

U.S. and China Push for Ceasefire as Thailand–Cambodia Border Clashes Escalate

China and the United States are intensifying separate diplomatic efforts to revive a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, as Southeast Asian leaders prepare for a crucial ASEAN meeting aimed at addressing the worst...

Syria, Kurds and U.S. Race to Show Progress on SDF Integration Deal

Syrian, Kurdish and U.S. officials are intensifying diplomatic efforts ahead of a year-end deadline to demonstrate progress on a long-stalled agreement to integrate Kurdish-led forces into the Syrian state, according to...

Putin Signals Possible Peace or Continued War in Ukraine at Major Year-End Address

Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to send a significant signal to the United States and European powers regarding the future of the Ukraine war when he speaks at his annual end-of-year news conference on Friday....

Trump Administration Reviews Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China, Marking Major Shift in U.S. AI Export Policy

The U.S. government under President Donald Trump has launched a formal review that could pave the way for the first-ever shipments of Nvidias H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, according to multiple sources...

Trump Signs Order to Ease Federal Marijuana Rules, Signaling Major Policy Shift

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order directing federal agencies to loosen regulations on marijuana, a move that could mark one of the most significant changes in U.S. cannabis policy in decades. The...

Science

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Senate Sets December 8 Vote on Trump’s NASA Nominee Jared Isaacman

The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee announced it will vote on December 8 on President Donald Trumps renewed nomination of private astronaut and tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA. Isaacman, known for his...

NASA Cuts Boeing Starliner Missions as SpaceX Pulls Ahead

NASA has significantly scaled back Boeings Starliner program after years of technical issues and delays, announcing that the next Starliner mission to the International Space Station (ISS) will fly without astronauts. The...

Blue Origin’s New Glenn Achieves Breakthrough Success With First NASA Mission

Blue Origins massive New Glenn rocket marked a major milestone as it completed its first mission for paying customers, sending two NASA satellites toward Mars and successfully landing its reusable booster at sea. The...

Cogent Biosciences Soars 120% on Breakthrough Phase 3 Results for Bezuclastinib in GIST Treatment

Cogent Biosciences (NASDAQ: COGT) shares skyrocketed over 120% after the biotech company announced groundbreaking results from its Phase 3 PEAK trial evaluating bezuclastinib in combination with sunitinib for patients with...

Technology

TikTok U.S. Deal Advances as ByteDance Signs Binding Joint Venture Agreement

TikTok has taken a major step toward securing its future in the United States after its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, announced it has signed binding agreements with three major investors to form a new joint venture...

Oracle Stock Surges After Hours on TikTok Deal Optimism and OpenAI Fundraising Buzz

Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) shares surged sharply in extended trading on Thursday, reflecting renewed investor optimism fueled by reports of a potential U.S. TikTok transaction and fresh fundraising discussions...

Apple Opens iPhone to Alternative App Stores in Japan Under New Competition Law

Apple has announced a major shift in its App Store policies in Japan, opening iPhones and other Apple devices to alternative app stores in order to comply with new competition laws aimed at reshaping the countrys...

Micron Technology Forecasts Surge in Revenue and Earnings on AI-Driven Memory Demand

Micron Technology delivered record first-quarter results and issued a bullish forecast for the current quarter, driven by rising memory prices and strong demand linked to artificial intelligence workloads. The upbeat...

Oracle Stock Slides After Blue Owl Exit Report, Company Says Michigan Data Center Talks Remain on Track

Oracle shares fell more than 4% on Wednesday after a Financial Times report claimed that Blue Owl Capital, Oracles largest U.S. data center partner, decided not to support a planned $10 billion data center project in...