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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

US Election Series

US under Trump Series

US election final results: how Trump won

Dec 17, 2016 15:00 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the US election held on 8 November, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton. While this seems a convincing victory, Trump won four states by 1.2% or less:...

Briferendum Series

Coalition likely to win following Brexit

Jun 28, 2016 20:49 pm UTC| Politics Insights & Views

The UKs vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) was known by the afternoon of the 24 June Melbourne time. The ReachTEL and Galaxy polls in the table were both taken entirely before the Brexit result was known. The one...

US Election Series

Clinton clinches Democratic nomination after big wins in New Jersey and California

Jun 08, 2016 11:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Hillary Clinton today clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination, following big wins in the two highest population states voting. She won New Jersey (126 pledged delegates) 63-37 and California (475) 56-43. She also...

UK elections: Labour wins London mayoralty, but otherwise mixed

May 13, 2016 09:50 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Elections were held in the UK last Thursday. At stake were the Scottish and Welsh assemblies, the Mayoralty of London and control of 124 English councils. Labours Sadiq Khan is the new Mayor of London, after defeating...

Election explainer: what are the opinion polls and how accurate are they?

May 12, 2016 00:17 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Business

Many opinion polls will be published during the election campaign. Most use either live phone polling (calls made by a human), robopolling (computer calls) or an online panel (poll sample selected from a large database of...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton crush opponents in northeast

Apr 27, 2016 22:40 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, Donald Trump won majorities of the vote across all five northeastern states that voted. He won 64% in Rhode Island, 61% in Delaware, 58% in Connecticut, 57% in Pennsylvania and 54% in Maryland. Prior to getting 60%...

US Election Series

Trump, Clinton have emphatic wins in New York

Apr 21, 2016 00:23 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Yesterday, Donald Trump won over 60% of the vote in his home state of New York. John Kasich was a very distant second with 25%, and Ted Cruz third with under 15%. Trumps massive vote majority gave him all 14 statewide...

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Economy

BCA Research Warns U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Could Collapse, Maintains Cautious Equity Outlook

BCA Research is cautiously optimistic about the recently announced U.S.-Iran ceasefire but is warning investors that the truce remains highly unstable. The firms chief geopolitical strategist, Matt Gertken, puts the odds...

U.S. Natural Gas Market Faces Short-Term Pressure but Long-Term Demand Surge

Wall Street analysts remain divided on the U.S. natural gas outlook, citing near-term price weakness alongside robust long-term demand fundamentals driven by LNG exports and growing global power consumption. Benchmark...

Chinese Brands Are Taking Over Brazil — And It's Just Getting Started

Chinese businesses are making bold moves into Brazil, marking a significant shift in how China is expanding its global footprint. Leading the charge is Mixue, the ice cream and beverage giant that already operates more...

Bank of America Maintains Forecast for Two Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 Despite Inflation Risks

Bank of America is holding firm on its prediction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, even as inflation concerns linger. In a note to clients, U.S. economist Aditya Bhave outlined why the bank...

Trump Claims Oil Tankers Heading to U.S. Amid Iran War and Strait of Hormuz Crisis

President Donald Trump announced Saturday that a large number of empty oil tankers are currently sailing toward the United States, intending to load American crude oil and natural gas. Trump made the claim via Truth...

Politics

U.S.-Iran Peace Talks in Islamabad Pause With Key Differences Unresolved

High-stakes diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran wrapped up in Islamabad, Pakistan on Sunday after roughly 14 hours of intense discussion, marking the first direct engagement between the two nations...

Islamabad at a Standstill as U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Take Center Stage

Islamabad has been transformed into a virtual ghost town as high-stakes direct negotiations between the United States and Iran got underway for the first time in years. Pakistani authorities imposed a citywide lockdown,...

Costa Rica Receives First Wave of U.S.-Deported Migrants Under New Bilateral Agreement

Costa Rica officially welcomed its first group of U.S.-deported migrants on Saturday, marking a significant milestone in a bilateral deportation agreement signed between the two nations in March. The group comprised 25...

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Resume in Islamabad Amid Strait of Hormuz Standoff

High-stakes diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran entered their second day in Islamabad on Sunday, with both sides still far apart on key issues particularly American demands over the Strait of...

Trump Warns China Over Iran Arms as Diplomatic Talks Intensify

U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to China on Sunday, cautioning that Beijing would face serious consequences if it were to supply weapons to Iran. The statement, delivered to reporters outside the White...

Science

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

Technology

OpenAI Addresses Security Vulnerability in macOS App Certification Process

OpenAI disclosed a security concern on Friday involving a third-party developer tool known as Axios, which is connected to the process used to verify the authenticity of its macOS applications. The company confirmed it has...

San Francisco Suspect Arrested After Molotov Cocktail Attack on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's Home

San Francisco police arrested a 20-year-old suspect Friday following a pre-dawn attack on OpenAI CEO Sam Altmans residence in the citys North Beach neighborhood. According to the San Francisco Police Department, an...

SanDisk Joins Nasdaq-100, Replacing Atlassian on April 20

Nasdaq Inc. confirmed late Friday that SanDisk Corporation will enter the Nasdaq-100 Index, taking the spot previously held by Atlassian Corp Plc when markets open on Monday, April 20, 2026. The change signals a broader...

TSMC Posts Strong Q1 2025 Revenue, Riding AI Chip Demand Wave

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the worlds leading contract chipmaker, has reported first-quarter revenue of T$1.134 trillion (approximately $35.71 billion USD), surpassing analyst expectations and...

Lumentum Holdings Rides AI Wave With Order Book Filled Through 2028

Lumentum Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: LITE) is experiencing a surge in demand from the artificial intelligence sector, with its order pipeline now fully booked through 2028, according to a Bloomberg report published Thursday. The...