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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Jul 17, 2023 12:52 pm UTC| Politics

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 1215 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 5545 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll...

Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days

May 02, 2021 06:49 am UTC| Politics

AAP/Chris Crerar With 79% counted in Saturdays Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling 12 of the 25 Tasmanian lower house seats for the Liberals, eight for Labor, two Greens and three undecided. Vote shares were 48.7%...

Trump's ratings slightly down after Ukraine scandal as Warren surges to tie Biden in Democratic polls

Oct 12, 2019 08:37 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trumps phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trumps...

No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes

Oct 08, 2017 02:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

In the last decade, there have been many horrific gun crimes in the US, where at least 10 people have been murdered in the one incident. However, the National Rifle Association has successfully fought all efforts to impose...

Former FBI director James Comey very likely caused Trump's win

May 13, 2017 03:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trumps ties to Russia. While such an...

US under Trump Series

Obamacare repeal vote shows power of US hard right

May 07, 2017 09:01 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Law

Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump failed, as both...

US under Trump Series

Anti-Trump backlash at US by-elections

Apr 12, 2017 14:44 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, a by-election was held in Kansas fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the 2016 election. At...

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Economy

Strait of Hormuz Oil and LNG Shipments Disrupted After U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iran

Global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, prompting Tehran to declare the strategic waterway closed....

MOEX Russia Index Hits 3-Month High as Energy Stocks Lead Gains

Russian stocks closed mixed on Saturday, with the MOEX Russia Index finishing flat but reaching a new three-month high. Despite ending the session unchanged at 0.00%, investor sentiment remained supported by strong...

Germany and China Reaffirm Open Trade and Strategic Partnership in Landmark Beijing Visit

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz concluded a pivotal visit to Beijing this week, signaling Germanys continued commitment to open markets and strong economic ties with China. As the first foreign leader to visit China in...

U.S. Stocks Close Lower as Hot PPI Data, Nvidia Slide Weigh on Wall Street

U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday, capping the worst monthly performance for Wall Street since March last year, as hotter-than-expected producer inflation data and continued weakness in technology stocks pressured investor...

Gold Prices Rally in February as Geopolitical Risks and Economic Uncertainty Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices surged on Friday, positioning the precious metal for strong February gains as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Spot gold climbed 1.5% to $5,261.81...

Politics

Russia Signals Openness to U.S. Security Guarantees for Ukraine at Geneva Peace Talks

Russia has indicated it would accept a U.S.-backed proposal for Ukraines post-war security guarantees during recent peace talks in Geneva, according to a senior aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The...

Trump Launches Operation Epic Fury: U.S. Strikes on Iran Mark High-Risk Shift in Middle East

President Donald Trump authorized a sweeping U.S. military operation against Iran after receiving intelligence briefings that warned of potential American casualties while highlighting a possible geopolitical shift in...

U.S.-Israel Strike on Iran Escalates Middle East Conflict, Trump Claims Khamenei Killed

The United States and Israel have launched coordinated military strikes on Iran, dramatically escalating tensions in the Middle East. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that Irans Supreme Leader, Ayatollah...

Netanyahu Suggests Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei May Have Been Killed in Israeli-U.S. Strikes

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Saturday that there are many signs indicating Irans Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, may have been killed in recent Israeli-U.S. airstrikes on Iran. The statement comes...

Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Killed in Israeli, U.S. Strikes: Reuters

Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly been killed in joint Israeli and U.S. strikes, according to a senior Israeli official who spoke to Reuters on Saturday. The reported death of Khamenei marks a...

Science

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

NASA and SpaceX Target Crew-11 Undocking From ISS Amid Medical Concern

NASA has confirmed that the agency, in coordination with SpaceX, is targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. Eastern Time (2200 GMT) on Wednesday, January 14, for the undocking of the SpaceX Crew-11 mission from the International...

Neuralink Plans High-Volume Brain Implant Production and Fully Automated Surgery by 2026

Elon Musks brain-computer interface company Neuralink is preparing for a major expansion, announcing plans to begin high-volume production of its brain implant devices and transition to a fully automated surgical procedure...

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Technology

Samsung Electronics Stock Poised for $1 Trillion Valuation Amid AI and Memory Boom

Samsung Electronics Co Ltd DRC (LON:0593xq) is rapidly regaining momentum as global demand for AI infrastructure and memory chips accelerates. According to recent analyst reports from Citi, Macquarie, and Morgan Stanley,...

OpenAI Pentagon AI Contract Adds Safeguards Amid Anthropic Dispute

OpenAI has confirmed that its newly signed contract with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) includes expanded safeguards designed to tightly regulate how artificial intelligence is deployed on classified government...

Trump Orders Federal Agencies to Halt Use of Anthropic AI Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Friday that he has directed every federal agency to immediately stop using artificial intelligence technology developed by Anthropic, escalating tensions between the federal government...

Federal Judge Blocks Virginia Social Media Age Verification Law Over First Amendment Concerns

A federal judge has temporarily blocked Virginia from enforcing a new social media law designed to protect children from online addiction, ruling that it likely violates First Amendment rights. The decision marks a...

Nintendo Share Sale: MUFG and Bank of Kyoto to Sell Stakes in Strategic Unwinding

Nintendo is reportedly preparing a major unwinding of strategic cross-shareholdings that could see MUFG Bank and the Bank of Kyoto sell significant stakes in the iconic Super Mario maker. According to sources familiar with...