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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Jul 17, 2023 12:52 pm UTC| Politics

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 1215 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 5545 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll...

Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days

May 02, 2021 06:49 am UTC| Politics

AAP/Chris Crerar With 79% counted in Saturdays Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling 12 of the 25 Tasmanian lower house seats for the Liberals, eight for Labor, two Greens and three undecided. Vote shares were 48.7%...

Trump's ratings slightly down after Ukraine scandal as Warren surges to tie Biden in Democratic polls

Oct 12, 2019 08:37 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trumps phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trumps...

No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes

Oct 08, 2017 02:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

In the last decade, there have been many horrific gun crimes in the US, where at least 10 people have been murdered in the one incident. However, the National Rifle Association has successfully fought all efforts to impose...

Former FBI director James Comey very likely caused Trump's win

May 13, 2017 03:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trumps ties to Russia. While such an...

US under Trump Series

Obamacare repeal vote shows power of US hard right

May 07, 2017 09:01 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Law

Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump failed, as both...

US under Trump Series

Anti-Trump backlash at US by-elections

Apr 12, 2017 14:44 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, a by-election was held in Kansas fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the 2016 election. At...

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Economy

BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Sticky Inflation, Weak Yen Shape USD/JPY and Nikkei Outlook

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1% when it concludes its two-day policy meeting on July 31, despite persistent inflation and continued weakness in the Japanese...

Asian Stocks Slip as Fed Holds Rates, Samsung Earnings Fail to Lift AI Sentiment

Most Asian stock markets declined on Thursday as investor concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) spending continued to pressure technology shares, overshadowing strong earnings from Samsung Electronics and upbeat...

Asian Currencies Hold Steady After Fed Decision as Dollar Finds Support

Asian currencies traded in narrow ranges on Thursday as investors assessed the U.S. Federal Reserves decision to keep interest rates unchanged while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the central banks commitment to bringing...

Fed Holds Rates Steady as US Dollar Slides, Euro and Yen Gain

The U.S. dollar recorded its biggest one-day decline in nearly four weeks on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, easing concerns that policymakers could unexpectedly tighten monetary policy....

Asian Stocks Tumble as Tech Selloff Deepens Ahead of Fed Decision, Big Tech Earnings

Asian stock markets posted steep losses on Wednesday as a sharp technology sector selloff continued for a second day, with South Korea leading regional declines ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserves policy announcement and...

Politics

Lebanon Lawyers Seek Probe Into Banker Over Alleged Netanyahu Dinner in Washington

A group of Lebanese lawyers has filed a legal complaint urging the countrys top prosecutor to investigate prominent banker Antoun Sehnaoui over allegations that he co-hosted a dinner in Washington attended by Israeli Prime...

U.S. Launches Air Strikes on Iran After Alleged Missile Attack on American Forces

The United States launched air strikes against targets in Iran on Wednesday night, marking a sharp escalation in tensions across the Middle East following what Washington described as an attempted Iranian attack on U.S....

New Jewish-Arab Party Seeks Young Voters Ahead of Israel Election Amid Debate Over Arab Vote

A newly formed Jewish-Arab political party is aiming to attract younger voters ahead of Israels October 27 parliamentary election, but critics argue its emergence could divide the Arab vote and strengthen Prime Minister...

Oman Proposes Strait of Hormuz Plan as U.S. Rejects Iran Shipping Fee Idea

Oman has presented Iran with a Gulf-backed proposal to help manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including a system of voluntary contributions from vessels, according to Reuters sources. The initiative aims to...

Ukraine F-16 Fighter Jet Crashes During Mission, Pilot Ejects Safely

Ukraines Air Force confirmed on Wednesday that one of its U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets crashed while carrying out a combat mission, although the pilot survived after successfully ejecting from the aircraft. According to a...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Sony Eyes $1.3 Billion Tamron Acquisition as Lens Maker Reviews Offer

Tamron (TYO:7740) confirmed Thursday that it has received a non-binding acquisition proposal from Sony (TYO:6758), following reports that the potential deal could be worth approximately 200 billion yen ($1.3 billion). The...

Samsung Q2 Profit Surges on AI Memory Chip Demand, Forecasts Strong Second Half

Samsung Electronics reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings, driven by soaring demand for artificial intelligence (AI) memory chips as global investment in AI infrastructure continued to accelerate. For the...

Russia Charges Telegram Founder Pavel Durov With Facilitating Terrorism, Seeks International Arrest

Russia has formally charged Telegram founder Pavel Durov with facilitating terrorist activity, accusing the messaging platform of being used by Ukrainian intelligence services to recruit operatives and organize attacks...

Meta Stock Drops After Earnings Miss as AI Spending and Legal Costs Weigh on Profit

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) shares fell 8% in after-hours trading after the social media giant reported second-quarter earnings that missed Wall Street expectations and issued weaker-than-expected third-quarter revenue...

Microsoft Stock Jumps as Azure Growth, AI Revenue Beat Expectations

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) shares surged more than 7% in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the technology giant reported stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings, delivered robust Azure cloud growth, and reaffirmed its...