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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Jul 17, 2023 12:52 pm UTC| Politics

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 1215 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 5545 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll...

Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days

May 02, 2021 06:49 am UTC| Politics

AAP/Chris Crerar With 79% counted in Saturdays Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling 12 of the 25 Tasmanian lower house seats for the Liberals, eight for Labor, two Greens and three undecided. Vote shares were 48.7%...

Trump's ratings slightly down after Ukraine scandal as Warren surges to tie Biden in Democratic polls

Oct 12, 2019 08:37 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trumps phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trumps...

No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes

Oct 08, 2017 02:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

In the last decade, there have been many horrific gun crimes in the US, where at least 10 people have been murdered in the one incident. However, the National Rifle Association has successfully fought all efforts to impose...

Former FBI director James Comey very likely caused Trump's win

May 13, 2017 03:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trumps ties to Russia. While such an...

US under Trump Series

Obamacare repeal vote shows power of US hard right

May 07, 2017 09:01 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Law

Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump failed, as both...

US under Trump Series

Anti-Trump backlash at US by-elections

Apr 12, 2017 14:44 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, a by-election was held in Kansas fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the 2016 election. At...

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Economy

Goldman Sachs Raises ECB Rate Hike Forecast Amid Persistent Energy-Driven Inflation

Goldman Sachs has revised its euro area economic outlook, now anticipating two interest rate increases from the European Central Bank as stubbornly high energy-driven inflation continues to overshadow slowing regional...

European Stocks Tumble as Iran-Strait of Hormuz Crisis Rattles Global Markets

European equity markets opened sharply lower on Monday as investors reacted to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. The pan-European Stoxx 600 dropped 1.3%, Germanys Dax slid...

Asian Currencies Slide as U.S.-Iran Tensions and Rising Oil Prices Rattle Markets

Asian currencies faced widespread pressure on Monday as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and surging oil prices rattled investor confidence across the region. The U.S. dollar steadied following modest losses last week, with...

Global Markets Reel as Middle East Tensions Escalate Energy Fears

Financial markets across the globe are experiencing significant turbulence as the ongoing Middle East conflict raises serious concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy supplies. Wall Street posted sharp losses on...

South Korean Stocks Tumble as Hawkish BOK Governor Appointment Rattles Markets

South Korean equities suffered steep losses on Monday after President Lee Jae Myung appointed Shin Hyun-song as the next Bank of Korea (BOK) governor, a move markets interpreted as a shift toward tighter monetary policy....

Politics

Palestinian Activist Leqaa Kordia Released from U.S. Immigration Detention After Judge's Order

Palestinian activist Leqaa Kordia, 33, has been released from a U.S. immigration detention facility in Texas following a federal judges ruling, marking the end of over a year in custody. Kordia, who grew up in the...

TSA Absences Surge During Government Shutdown as ICE Agents Prepare Airport Deployment

Airport security across the United States is facing a serious staffing crisis as the partial government shutdown enters its fifth week. The Department of Homeland Security reported that Transportation Security...

Iran Threatens Gulf Infrastructure as U.S.-Israel War Enters Critical 48-Hour Window

Tensions in the Middle East have reached a dangerous new flashpoint after Iran threatened to strike energy and water infrastructure across Gulf nations if the United States carries out President Donald Trumps warning to...

Trump Links DHS Funding to Voter ID Legislation

President Donald Trump declared Sunday that he would block any Department of Homeland Security funding agreement unless Congressional Democrats first pass the Save America Act a bill that would require Americans to show...

Ukraine-U.S. Peace Talks Continue in Florida as Zelenskiy Pushes for Diplomatic Progress

Ukrainian and American delegations wrapped up a second day of peace negotiations in Florida on Sunday, as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signaled cautious optimism about ongoing diplomatic efforts to end Russias war on...

Science

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

SpaceX Prioritizes Moon Mission Before Mars as Starship Development Accelerates

Elon Musks SpaceX is shifting its near-term space exploration strategy, choosing to prioritize a return to the Moon before pursuing missions to Mars, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar...

NASA and SpaceX Target Crew-11 Undocking From ISS Amid Medical Concern

NASA has confirmed that the agency, in coordination with SpaceX, is targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. Eastern Time (2200 GMT) on Wednesday, January 14, for the undocking of the SpaceX Crew-11 mission from the International...

Neuralink Plans High-Volume Brain Implant Production and Fully Automated Surgery by 2026

Elon Musks brain-computer interface company Neuralink is preparing for a major expansion, announcing plans to begin high-volume production of its brain implant devices and transition to a fully automated surgical procedure...

Jared Isaacman Confirmed as NASA Administrator, Becomes 15th Leader of U.S. Space Agency

The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman as the new NASA administrator, making him the 15th leader in the agencys history. The confirmation, which took place on Wednesday, marks...

Technology

Elon Musk Announces Terafab: SpaceX and Tesla to Build Dual AI Chip Factories in Austin, Texas

Elon Musk revealed plans for a massive dual-chip manufacturing complex called Terafab in Austin, Texas, set to be jointly developed by SpaceX and Tesla. The announcement marks a significant step in Musks broader strategy...

NVIDIA's Feynman AI Chip May Face Redesign Amid TSMC Capacity Crunch

NVIDIA could be forced to redesign its next-generation Feynman artificial intelligence chip platform as contract manufacturing giant TSMC struggles to keep pace with surging global demand. According to a report from...

Elliott Investment Management Takes Multibillion-Dollar Stake in Synopsys

Activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management has quietly built a multibillion-dollar position in Synopsys, the electronic design automation (EDA) giant, signaling a push for stronger financial performance from one of...

Palantir's Maven AI Earns Pentagon "Program of Record" Status, Reshaping Military AI Strategy

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) is drawing renewed investor and industry attention after the U.S. Department of Defense officially designated its Maven Smart System as a program of record, a classification that...

Amazon's "Transformer" Phone: Can It Succeed Where Fire Phone Failed?

Amazon is quietly developing a new smartphone, codenamed Transformer, marking the companys return to mobile hardware more than a decade after its Fire Phone disaster. According to sources familiar with the initiative, the...