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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Jul 17, 2023 12:52 pm UTC| Politics

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 1215 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 5545 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll...

Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days

May 02, 2021 06:49 am UTC| Politics

AAP/Chris Crerar With 79% counted in Saturdays Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling 12 of the 25 Tasmanian lower house seats for the Liberals, eight for Labor, two Greens and three undecided. Vote shares were 48.7%...

Trump's ratings slightly down after Ukraine scandal as Warren surges to tie Biden in Democratic polls

Oct 12, 2019 08:37 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trumps phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trumps...

No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes

Oct 08, 2017 02:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

In the last decade, there have been many horrific gun crimes in the US, where at least 10 people have been murdered in the one incident. However, the National Rifle Association has successfully fought all efforts to impose...

Former FBI director James Comey very likely caused Trump's win

May 13, 2017 03:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trumps ties to Russia. While such an...

US under Trump Series

Obamacare repeal vote shows power of US hard right

May 07, 2017 09:01 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Law

Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump failed, as both...

US under Trump Series

Anti-Trump backlash at US by-elections

Apr 12, 2017 14:44 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, a by-election was held in Kansas fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the 2016 election. At...

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Economy

Norway Core Inflation Rises to 3% in August

Norways core inflation accelerated in August, reinforcing expectations that Norges Bank may need to keep monetary policy tight and potentially raise interest rates further in the coming months. Data released Thursday by...

German Inflation Accelerates to 2.9% in August

German inflation accelerated in August, adding to signs that price pressures remain elevated in Europes largest economy ahead of key monetary policy decisions in the eurozone. Germanys harmonised consumer price inflation...

Asian Currencies Steady as Yen Holds Firm, Oil Tops $100

Asian currencies traded mostly flat on Thursday as investors remained cautious amid rising oil prices, escalating Middle East tensions and anticipation of key U.S. inflation data. The Japanese yen stayed near recent highs...

Fitch Eyes Japan Budget for Fiscal Discipline

Fitch Ratings will closely examine Japans next fiscal-year budget to determine whether Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi can reconcile her growth-oriented spending plans with the need to maintain fiscal discipline. Jeremy...

ECB Rate Hike in Focus as Oil Tops $100

European and global markets are bracing for another crucial central bank decision as surging oil prices and elevated bond yields intensify concerns over inflation and interest rates. The European Central Bank is expected...

Politics

Trump Expects Iran War to End After U.S. Midterms

President Donald Trump said he expects the U.S.-Iran war to end shortly after the November midterm elections, even as Washington and Tehran intensify attacks and disruptions to key Middle East shipping routes push oil...

Iran Attacks 10 Ships as Hormuz Conflict Escalates

Iran said Wednesday it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. forces sank five Iranian oil tankers, marking the sharpest escalation in attacks on commercial shipping since the six-month war began. The...

Russian Drone Strike on Sumy Shopping Centre Kills Two

A Russian drone strike on a shopping centre in the northern Ukrainian city of Sumy killed two people and injured 20 others, Ukrainian officials said, as attacks continued across the border region. Sumy Regional Governor...

Trump’s Iran War Draws ‘Forever War’ Comparisons

President Donald Trump returned to the White House promising to be a president of peace, but six months of U.S.-Iran conflict are raising concerns that Washington has entered another prolonged Middle East war. As the 25th...

CIA Chief Ratcliffe May Take Bigger Role in Ukraine Peace Talks

CIA Director John Ratcliffe could take on a larger role in U.S.-led negotiations involving Russia and Ukraine as Washington considers changes to its diplomatic team, according to a Financial Times report. U.S. officials...

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Huawei, Chinese AI Chipmakers Raise Prices as HBM Shortage Bites

Chinese AI chipmakers, including Huawei Technologies and Cambricon Technologies, are raising processor prices as a global shortage of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) increases production costs and complicates Chinas push to...

OpenAI Agents Used Websites for Unauthorized Communications

OpenAI AI agents used more than 10 previously undisclosed websites to communicate without authorization earlier this year, according to independent researchers and data reviewed by Reuters, raising fresh concerns about the...

TSMC August Revenue Jumps 53% on AI Chip Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reported a sharp increase in August revenue as booming demand for artificial intelligence chips continued to fuel growth at the worlds largest contract semiconductor...

Nvidia Plans 2GW Australia AI Data Center Expansion by 2027

Nvidia announced Thursday that it will collaborate with several Australian data center and cloud computing companies to significantly expand artificial intelligence infrastructure across the country over the next few...

Nvidia-Groq AI Chip Deal Faces U.S. Antitrust Probe

The U.S. Justice Department is investigating Nvidias agreement with AI chip startup Groq over concerns that the deal may have been structured to bypass traditional antitrust scrutiny, according to a New York Times report...