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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Jul 17, 2023 12:52 pm UTC| Politics

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 1215 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 5545 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll...

Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days

May 02, 2021 06:49 am UTC| Politics

AAP/Chris Crerar With 79% counted in Saturdays Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling 12 of the 25 Tasmanian lower house seats for the Liberals, eight for Labor, two Greens and three undecided. Vote shares were 48.7%...

Trump's ratings slightly down after Ukraine scandal as Warren surges to tie Biden in Democratic polls

Oct 12, 2019 08:37 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trumps phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trumps...

No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes

Oct 08, 2017 02:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

In the last decade, there have been many horrific gun crimes in the US, where at least 10 people have been murdered in the one incident. However, the National Rifle Association has successfully fought all efforts to impose...

Former FBI director James Comey very likely caused Trump's win

May 13, 2017 03:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trumps ties to Russia. While such an...

US under Trump Series

Obamacare repeal vote shows power of US hard right

May 07, 2017 09:01 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Law

Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump failed, as both...

US under Trump Series

Anti-Trump backlash at US by-elections

Apr 12, 2017 14:44 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, a by-election was held in Kansas fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the 2016 election. At...

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Economy

Scope Warns US Debt Could Hit 160% of GDP

Scope Ratings warned that the United States is becoming increasingly vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment as persistent budget deficits drive government debt and interest costs higher. The European credit ratings...

Bank of America Sees EUR/USD at 1.15 by Year-End

Bank of America expects the euro to strengthen against the U.S. dollar over the coming year, forecasting EUR/USD will reach 1.15 by the end of this year before climbing to 1.20 by the end of 2027, according to a research...

G20 Divided Over US Push to Curb Industrial Overcapacity

A U.S.-led effort to tackle excess industrial capacity and non-market economic policies failed to secure unanimous support from Group of 20 trade ministers, highlighting persistent divisions among the worlds major...

Fed’s Hammack Says More Data Needed Before Next Rate Move

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said policymakers have time to review additional economic data before determining their next move on U.S. interest rates, signaling that the latest weak jobs report...

AI Agents Could Disrupt Financial Services, Bernstein Says

Consumer AI agents could reshape financial services by reducing customer inertia and making it easier to switch between financial products, although trust, data access and regulatory hurdles may slow adoption, according to...

Politics

Flydubai FZ1073 Co-Pilot Accused of Terror Attack

The co-pilot of flydubai flight FZ1073 attempted to carry out a terrorist attack with a crash axe while the aircraft was flying to Israel, the United Arab Emirates prosecutor general said Saturday. The co-pilot was...

Merz to Meet ECB Frontrunners Knot and De Cos

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is preparing to meet the two leading candidates to succeed European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde as negotiations over the ECBs future leadership gather pace, Bloomberg reported,...

Xi Rest Breaks Cut Trump Summit Schedule, WSJ Reports

Chinese President Xi Jinpings delegation requested extended rest periods during his recent Washington summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, reducing the time available for meetings between the two leaders, according to...

Iran Faces Rising Pressure as U.S. Builds Military Presence

Iran is coming under intensifying economic and military pressure as the United States strengthens its forces in the Middle East while regional oil exports recover toward pre-war levels, according to Bloomberg. The Trump...

Trump Heads to Ohio to Boost Husted in Tight Senate Race

U.S. President Donald Trump will campaign in Ohio on Saturday as Republicans fight to retain their narrow congressional majority, with the states closely contested U.S. Senate race emerging as a key midterm battleground....

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

SoftBank Shares Fall After $10 Billion OpenAI Investment

SoftBank Group shares dropped sharply on Friday after the Japanese technology conglomerate completed the final portion of its latest OpenAI investment, lifting its total investment in the artificial intelligence company to...

Amazon Eyes $8 Billion Nvidia Chip Spinoff to Fund AI Expansion

Amazon is exploring a plan to transfer roughly $8 billion worth of advanced Nvidia artificial intelligence chips to outside investors as the technology giant looks for new ways to finance its rapidly expanding AI...

California AG Subpoenas OpenAI Over AI Cybersecurity Incidents

California Attorney General Rob Bonta served OpenAI with an investigative subpoena Wednesday, escalating a state investigation into cybersecurity incidents involving the artificial intelligence company and its models. The...

WordPress Malware Uses Ethereum to Evade Removal

Security researchers have uncovered a persistent WordPress malware strain that uses Ethereum infrastructure for command-and-control communications, making infected websites unusually difficult to clean. According to...

DogeOS Launches Testnet to Bring DeFi Apps to Dogecoin

DogeOS has launched a public testnet designed to bring Ethereum-style decentralized finance applications to Dogecoin, potentially expanding DOGEs utility beyond payments and price speculation. The Ethereum-compatible...
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