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Adrian Beaumont

I am a PhD student at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. In the lead-up to the Australian Federal election, I will be writing a post every week about the latest polls and what they mean for the number of seats that will be won by each party in the 150-member Australian House of Representatives.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Jul 17, 2023 12:52 pm UTC| Politics

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 1215 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 5545 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll...

Liberals likely to retain majority in Tasmania; Biden's ratings after 100 days

May 02, 2021 06:49 am UTC| Politics

AAP/Chris Crerar With 79% counted in Saturdays Tasmanian election, the ABC is calling 12 of the 25 Tasmanian lower house seats for the Liberals, eight for Labor, two Greens and three undecided. Vote shares were 48.7%...

Trump's ratings slightly down after Ukraine scandal as Warren surges to tie Biden in Democratic polls

Oct 12, 2019 08:37 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

About two weeks since a transcript of Donald Trumps phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was revealed, his approval with all polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is 41.6% and his disapproval is 54.0%. Trumps...

No chance of US gun control despite Las Vegas massacre; NZ left gains two seats after special votes

Oct 08, 2017 02:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

In the last decade, there have been many horrific gun crimes in the US, where at least 10 people have been murdered in the one incident. However, the National Rifle Association has successfully fought all efforts to impose...

Former FBI director James Comey very likely caused Trump's win

May 13, 2017 03:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump dramatically sacked FBI director James Comey. There has been speculation that Comey was fired in an attempt to prevent an FBI investigation into Trumps ties to Russia. While such an...

US under Trump Series

Obamacare repeal vote shows power of US hard right

May 07, 2017 09:01 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics Law

Since the passage of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare, Republicans have attempted to repeal it. In March, the first attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare under President Trump failed, as both...

US under Trump Series

Anti-Trump backlash at US by-elections

Apr 12, 2017 14:44 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Today, a by-election was held in Kansas fourth Congressional District (CD) for election to the US House. This CD is very conservative, and voted for Donald Trump by 60-33 against Hillary Clinton at the 2016 election. At...

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Economy

European Regulators Clash With U.S. Treasury Over Private Credit Transparency

European financial regulators are facing resistance from the U.S. Treasury as they seek greater transparency into banks exposure to the fast-growing private credit market, underscoring a widening regulatory divide between...

Gold Prices Slip as U.S.-Iran Conflict, Fed Rate Hike Bets Pressure Precious Metals

Gold prices traded little changed on Friday but remained on track for a weekly decline as escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran boosted inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the...

Japanese Yen Rises as Pension Fund Plan and BOJ Rate Hike Bets Weigh on Dollar

The Japanese yen outperformed other Asian currencies on Friday after the Japanese government signaled plans to encourage the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) to increase investments in domestic assets. The move...

Asian Stocks Rise as AI Chip Rally Offsets Middle East Tensions

Asian stock markets advanced on Friday, led by a strong rebound in semiconductor shares, as investors shifted their focus from escalating Middle East tensions to the long-term growth outlook for artificial intelligence...

Japan Eyes Bigger GPIF Investment in Domestic Assets as BOJ Independence Concerns Grow

Japans government is considering measures to encourage pension funds, including the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), to significantly increase their investments in domestic financial assets, Finance Minister...

Politics

ASEAN to Hold Landmark Myanmar Talks as Bloc Seeks Progress on Civil War

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will hold an informal meeting with Myanmars foreign minister on Sunday to discuss the countrys ongoing civil war and its future engagement with the regional bloc, marking...

NATO Leaders Receive Engraved Turkish Revolvers as Unusual Summit Gifts

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan surprised NATO leaders with an unusual diplomatic gift after the alliances summit in Ankara, presenting each visiting leader with an engraved vintage Turkish revolver complete with...

Trump Administration Sues Maryland Over Alleged Sanctuary Immigration Policies

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has filed a lawsuit against the state of Maryland, accusing it of enforcing so-called sanctuary policies that the Trump administration says hinder federal immigration enforcement...

Regional Powers Push to Revive U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks After Escalation

Regional powers are intensifying diplomatic efforts to prevent the collapse of a U.S.-Iran nuclear understanding after a sharp rise in military tensions, according to an Axios report published Thursday citing sources...

Iran Buries Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at Imam Reza Shrine as Successor Mojtaba Remains Out of Public View

Iran buried slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad early Friday, concluding a week of large-scale funeral ceremonies marked by mourning, nationalist rallies and anti-U.S....

Science

Blue Origin New Glenn Explosion Could Delay Launch Operations Until 2028

Blue Origin is facing a significant setback after a dramatic explosion involving its New Glenn rocket severely damaged a launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida. According to NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, repairs to the...

Blue Origin New Glenn Rocket Explodes During Launch Pad Test, Delaying Space Ambitions

Blue Origin suffered a major setback after its uncrewed New Glenn rocket exploded during a launch pad test in Florida on Thursday, raising new challenges for Jeff Bezos space company as it competes with Elon Musks SpaceX...

SpaceX Delays Starship V3 Launch Ahead of Potential Record IPO

SpaceX on Thursday postponed the highly anticipated launch of its 12th Starship rocket test from Texas after technical issues interrupted the final countdown. The company now plans to attempt the Starship V3 launch again...

Trump Administration Releases New UFO Files and Apollo Mission Records

The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified UFO-related files following an order from President Donald Trump, sparking renewed debate over unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) and government...

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

Technology

Elon Musk Says Anthropic Leads AI Race as Claude Models Challenge OpenAI

Elon Musk has publicly praised artificial intelligence startup Anthropic, saying the company is obviously the current leader in AI, in a rare acknowledgment of a key rival as competition among top AI developers...

OpenAI Executive Fidji Simo to Step Down Amid Health Challenges Ahead of IPO

OpenAIs head of products and business, Fidji Simo, announced on Thursday that she will step down from her leadership role and transition to a part-time advisory position after experiencing complications from a chronic...

Samsung Chairman Lee Jae-yong Expected to Meet Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on AI and Chip Partnership

Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong is expected to meet Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang in the United States by the end of July as the two technology giants explore deeper cooperation in semiconductor manufacturing and...

SK Hynix Prices Record U.S. ADR Offering at $149 After $200 Billion Investor Demand

South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix Inc. has priced its landmark U.S. American depositary receipt (ADR) offering at $149 per ADR, finalizing one of the largest and most closely watched semiconductor share sales in...

Bain Capital Exits Kioxia After AI-Fueled Valuation Surge

Bain Capital has fully exited its investment in Japanese flash memory manufacturer Kioxia, marking the end of a highly profitable private equity deal driven by the rapid expansion of the artificial intelligence (AI)...