Currency War Series

Currency War Series

Brazil's COPOM to keep policy rates stable

Nov 30, 2015 22:17 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Last week brought renewed uncertainty on the Brazilian policy outlook. A new round of arrests in the Carwash probe raises questions about the feasibility of passing fiscal measures. At the same time, COPOM delivered a...

Currency War Series

ECB expectations adding pressure on euro

Nov 30, 2015 11:56 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

When the ECB launched its 1.1trillion QE programme in March, purchasing 60bn of bonds a month, euro area inflation stood at a minus 0.1pct and has since climbed to 0.1pct, well below the ECB target. In a speech last week...

Currency War Series

RBA likely to end the year on hold

Nov 30, 2015 09:27 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

There is final Reserve Bank of Australias meeting tomorrow, in which the Governor speaks on the economy the next day, just before the release of the GDP for third quarter of this year. We still expect the RBA to remain...

Currency War Series

Poland's NBP likely to cut rates by 50bp in Q1 16

Nov 30, 2015 09:16 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Poland economy was under deflationary pressure in October with the CPI inflation reading at 0.7% y/y. The negative growth rate in price level is expected to continue in November also. The CPI deflation is expected at -0.4%...

Currency War Series

BoC likely to hold despite weaker data

Nov 30, 2015 08:30 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

BoC is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged, as per the market consensus expectations, as there is good inflation and the decline in oil and commodity prices is compensated by the economic activity in non-resource...

Currency War Series

ECB easing will likely cause the Riksbank to cut

Nov 30, 2015 07:24 am UTC| Commentary Central Banks

ECBs meeting this week brings in wide expectations on a rate cut and extension of its QE programme, which will ultimately effect smaller European currencies like the SEK, NOK and CHF. In Sweden, we continue to think...

Currency War Series

Banxico likely to remain on hold

Nov 30, 2015 06:15 am UTC| Commentary

October unemployment rate in Mexico edged up to 4.37% sa. An increase in seasonally adjusted participation rate by 63bp led to this upward surprise. On year on year basis, it has fallen 22bp, to 4.55% from 4.78% in October...