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U.S. back-to-school spending is expected to decline in 2026 as families become more cautious about their finances amid growing economic uncertainty, according to a Deloitte survey released on Thursday. While parents remain committed to preparing their children for the school year, many are shifting spending toward essential items and delaying non-essential purchases.
Deloitte projects total back-to-school spending for households with K-12 students will reach $30.4 billion, with average spending of $557 per student, down from $570 a year earlier after adjusting for inflation. The report also found that 57% of consumers expect the U.S. economy to worsen over the next six months, marking the highest level of economic pessimism since 2020.
The survey indicates that parents will prioritize necessities such as clothing and school supplies while reducing spending on technology products. To make room in their budgets, nearly half of surveyed households said they plan to cut back on discretionary expenses, including dining out and entertainment.
Another notable trend is that families are waiting longer before making purchases, with many planning to shop closer to the start of the school year. This contrasts with other retail forecasts that suggest consumers are beginning their back-to-school shopping earlier this summer.
Despite the emphasis on saving money, value-conscious shoppers are not necessarily spending less. Deloitte found that roughly one-third of parents qualify as "hyper value-seekers," yet this group is expected to spend about 14% more than other consumers by strategically taking advantage of promotions and discounts.
"We see parents approach back-to-school shopping with intent. They tend to be more thoughtful about their spending and value-seeking strategies to help maximize their wallets," said Brian McCarthy, principal of retail strategy at Deloitte Consulting.
Separately, PwC forecasts average back-to-school spending will reach $922 per family this year, about 47% higher than in 2025. The National Retail Federation estimates the back-to-school shopping season accounted for approximately 2.3% of total U.S. retail sales, with consumers spending $128.2 billion in 2025.
Deloitte's findings are based on an online survey conducted from May 22 to May 29 involving 1,207 parents with at least one child in grades K-12.
