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US Treasury Yields Near 5% as Oil Fuels Inflation Fears

US Treasury Yields Near 5% as Oil Fuels Inflation Fears. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Global bond markets came under heavy selling pressure on Friday, pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield close to the critical 5% threshold as soaring oil prices and expectations for higher interest rates intensified inflation concerns.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.97% during early Asian trading, its highest level since late 2023. A sustained move above 5% could make government bonds increasingly attractive compared with equities while raising borrowing costs for mortgages, consumer loans, companies and governments.

Bond yields are rising across major developed economies as investors respond to oil prices above $100 per barrel, persistent inflation and growing government borrowing. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, while stronger U.S. producer price data increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy next week.

Traders now see a 72% probability of a Fed rate hike, up from 49% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch. The U.S. two-year Treasury yield, which is particularly sensitive to monetary policy expectations, reached 4.596%, its highest since July 2024.

Pressure also spread through Asian and European bond markets. Australia’s three-year government bond yield jumped 18 basis points to a 15-year high of 5.047%, while Japan’s 10-year yield rose six basis points to 2.97%. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to increase rates next week.

Oil remains a major driver of the global bond selloff. Brent crude reached a four-month high of $109.97 per barrel and was on track for a weekly gain of roughly 13% as attacks on key Middle Eastern shipping routes raised fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury bought back $5.2 billion of bonds in its latest liquidity operation, below its $6 billion limit.

Markets are now focused on U.S. consumer inflation data. Analysts say a stronger-than-expected CPI reading could push the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, while softer inflation and stable oil prices could provide bond markets with some relief.

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