Market Roundup
• Canada Jan Foreign Securities Purchases 8.88B,2.05B forecast,10.44B previous
• Canada Jan Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians -7.59B, 29.40B previous
• Canada Jan Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.1%, -0.6% forecast,0.3% previous
• US Mar NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -20.90,-7.00 forecast,-2.40 previous
• US Feb Import Price Index (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.8% previous
• US Feb Export Price Index (MoM) 0.8%,0.2% forecast,0.8% previous
• US Import Price Index (YoY) -0.8%,-1.3% previous
• US Export Price Index (YoY) -1.8%,-7.0% forecast,-2.4% previous
•US Feb Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.8%,0.3% forecast,-0.5% previous
•US Feb Industrial Production (YoY) -0.23%, 0.03% previous
•US Feb Capacity Utilization Rate 78.3%,78.5% forecast,78.5% previous
•US Feb Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1%,0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
•US Mar Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9%,2.9% previous
•US Mar Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 3.0%,3.0% previous
•US Mar Michigan Consumer Sentiment 76.5, 77.1 forecast,76.9 previous
•US Mar Michigan Current Conditions 79.4, 79.2 forecast,79.4 previous
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations 74.6,75.1 forecast,75.2 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 510,504 previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 629, 622 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened slightly against dollar on Friday after a mixed batch of data showed the U.S. economy remained stable , suggesting the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer or reduce the planned number of rate cuts this year. Data on Friday showed a solid U.S. manufacturing sector, with output rebounding by 0.8% last month after a downwardly revised 1.1% decline in the prior month. The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 76.5 this month, compared to a final reading of 76.9 in February.The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations, a measure tracked by the Fed, was unchanged at 3.0% in March. The survey's five-year inflation outlook held steady as well at 2.9% for the fourth straight month. The euro was slightly up at $1.0889. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0947 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0995(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0871 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0803(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was set for its biggest weekly fall against the dollar since December on Friday, as investors looked ahead to a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision next week.The slide in the pound comes after a period of relative strength for the currency, which has gained this year on bets the BoE will keep rates higher for longer than its peers. Economic data this week showed Britain's housing market picked up in February, while the overall economy grew 0.2% in January from a month earlier, after slipping into recession in late 2023.The BoE is expected to keep rates on hold at 5.25% next Thursday, with market pricing favouring the BoE cutting rates slightly slower than the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve this year. Sterling slipped 0.1% to $1.2737. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2828(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2857(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2715(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2623(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a nine-day low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as long-term borrowing costs continued to push higher ahead of an interest rate decision next week by the Federal Reserve. Canadian housing starts rebounded more than expected in February as groundbreaking increased on multiple-unit urban homes but analysts were doubtful that the pickup in activity, seen key to relieving a housing shortage, would be sustained.Separate data showed that wholesale trade grew by 0.1% in January from December after the previous month was revised down to a decline of 0.3%.The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, consolidated its recent gains. U.S. crude oil futures settled 0.3% lower at $81.04 a barrel. The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3545 to the U.S. dollar, after touching its weakest intraday level since March 6 at 1.3551. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3562 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3610 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3494(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3438(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday ahead of a flurry of highly-anticipated central bank meetings next week, including of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan is close to ending eight years of negative interest rate policy, with internal preparations for an exit in the works since Kazuo Ueda took office as BOJ governor, sources familiar with the bank's thinking have previously told Reuters. Japan's biggest companies agreed with labour unions to raise wages by the highest level in 33 years on Friday, reinforcing views that the country's central bank is poised to make a landmark shift away from negative interest rates. The dollar continued to rise against the yen, up 0.5% at 149.02 . On the week, the greenback rose 1.3%, on track for its biggest gain since mid-January. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.98 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.33(March 7th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.51 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 146.82 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares inched lower on Friday, as the strength in telecommunications sector was offset by a sell-off in global equities after hotter than expected inflation figures from the U.S. hurt June rate-cut bets.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax closed down by 0.08 percent, France’s CAC closed up by 0.04 percent.
U.S. stocks fell on Friday, led by technology-related megacaps that have propelled this year's rally, while investors weighed the interest rate outlook ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting.
Dow Jones was down by 0.49%percent, S&P 500 was down by 0.65% percent, Nasdaq was down by 0.96% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Friday as they looked set to log their first weekly drop in four as investors lowered expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut after data over the week showed bubbling price pressures.
Spot gold was little changed at $2,159.99 per ounce, as of 2:42 p.m. EDT (1842 GMT). Bullion lost 0.8% for the week, in its first weekly decline since mid-February after hitting a record high of $2,194.99 last week.U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $2,161.5.
Oil prices dipped on Friday, a day after topping $85 a barrel for the first time since November, but prices were expected to finish more than 3% higher for the week on rising demand from U.S. refiners completing planned overhauls.
Brent crude oil futures slid 9 cents or 0.11% to $85.33 a barrel at 12:16 p.m. CDT (1716 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 17 cents or 0.21% to $81.09.
