Market Roundup
- EUR/USD 0.05 percent, USD/JPY 0.09 percent, GBP/USD 0.05 percent, EUR/GBP 0.01 percent
- DXY -0.06 percent, DAX 0.05 percent, FTSE -0.29 percent, Brent -1.95 percent, Gold 0.26 percent
- Exports, inventories seen boosting U.S. first-quarter growth
- Japan resists U.S. pressure on FX in trade talks ahead of Abe-Trump summit
- Investors may be doubting effectiveness of ECB policy – Rehn
- Goldman Sachs says dragged-out Brexit is doing deeper damage to UK economy
- GB Mar UK Finance Mortgage Approvals, 39.980k, 39.083k previous, 39.207k revised
- GB Apr CBI Distributive Trades, 13, 0 forecast, -18 previous
- FR Apr Consumer Confidence, 96, 97 forecast, 96 previous
- SNB's Jordan pans calls to ditch negative Swiss interest rates
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Q1 GDP Advance, 2.0 percent forecast, 2.2 percent previous
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Q1 GDP Deflator Advance, 1.3 percent forecast, 1.9% previous
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Q1 Core PCE Prices Advance, 1.6 percent forecast, 1.8% previous
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Apr U Mich Sentiment Final, 97.0 forecast, 96.9 previous
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Apr U Mich Conditions Final, 114.2 forecast, 114.2 previous
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Apr U Mich Expectations Final, 86.0 forecast, 85.8 previous
Key Events Ahead
- No major event scheduled
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar index consolidates at multi-year highs ahead of key GDP data. DXY manages to hold above the 98.00 barrier for now. Break below could see minor pullback.
EUR/USD: EUR/USD is trading marginally higher on the day at 1.1137 at 1035 GMT. The pair has halted 3 consecutive session's of downside and is currently holding channel base support. Major trend in the pair is bearish, however, further weakness only on break below. Immediate resistance lies at 5-DMA at 1.1181. Break above eyes 21-EMA at 1.1232. Further upside momentum can see test of 55-EMA at 1.1280. Focus on U.S. Q1 GDP data for further impetus.
USD/CAD: USD/CAD edges higher from session lows at 1.3468, trades 0.05 percent higher at 1.3491 at 1100 GMT. Weak Canadian economic data and dovish BOC policy keep upside pressure. Focus now on U.S. Q1 GDP data for further impetus. Volatility is expanding and bullish momentum to see further upside. Near term resistance lies at 1.35250 and any convincing break above will take the pair till 1.3580/1.3660. Immediate support lies at 1.34650 (resistance turned into support), break below will drag the pair till 1.3435/1.3400. Any violation below 1.3365 (20- day MA) confirms further weakness.
USD/CHF: USD/CHF on track to close in the green for the 5th straight week. The pair is trading at its highest since January 2017. The bull trend remains intact and we see scope for further upside. The momentum is tilted to the upside as USD/CHF is trading above major moving averages and volatility is expanding. Scope for test of 1.0343 (Dec 2016 high). 5-DMA is immediate support. Break below 200-DMA negates near-term bullishness.
USD/JPY: USD/JPY holds above 200-DMA, bias remains to the downside. Dismal Japanese industrial production data supports upside in the pair as markets await U.S. GDP data for further impetus. Japan's factory output in March fell 0.9 percent month-on-month, the biggest drop since 2015, missing forecasts for drop by 0.1 percent. The major is trading rangebound above 200-DMA, Doji formation seen on the daily candle. RSI has turned and break below 200-DMA will see dip till 23.6% Fib at 110.57. A decisive break above 112 handle required for any upside. Next major resistance above 112 lies at 78.6% Fib at 112.43.
Equities Recap
European shares largely muted amid mixed earnings results. At 1130 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 index was largely unchanged at 390.46 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 0.13 percent to 1,545.39 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.27 percent down at 7,414.25 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 down 0.34 percent to 7,414.25 points.
Germany's DAX gained 0.18 percent to 12,304.89 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.10 percent higher at 5,563.20 points.
Commodities Recap
U.S. oil slips further from multi-month highs. Expectations that OPEC will raise output to counter shrinking exports from Iran add pressure.
Brent crude futures were at $74.24 per barrel at 0829 GMT, down 11 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $64.96 per barrel, down 25 cents.
Spot gold was up 0.4 percent at $1,281.69 per ounce, as of 0813 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged up 0.3 percent to $1,283.80 an ounce.
Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.5 percent at $15.01 per ounce, platinum rose 0.8 percent to $889.57, while palladium was down 0.1 percent to $1,412.97 per ounce.
Treasuries Recap
U.S.: The U.S. Treasuries gained during Friday’s afternoon session on expectations that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year, scheduled to be released today by 12:30GMT, will rise at a pace slower than the previous reading in Q4 2018. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slipped nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 2.522 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields also edged 1-1/2 basis points lower to 2.935 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year slumped 2-1/2 basis points to 2.304 percent.
EUR: The German bunds remained tad higher during European session of the last trading day of the week Friday amid a muted trading session that witnessed data of little economic significance. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, slipped nearly 1 basis point to 0.018 percent, the yield on 30-year note remained tad lower at 0.632 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded flat at -0.613 percent.
AUS: Australian government bonds slightly gained during Asian trading session Friday following disappointment in the country’s producer price inflation (PPI) data for the first quarter of this year, which added to hopes of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) over the coming months. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, edged tad lower to 1.793 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond slipped 1 basis point to 2.431 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year hovered around 1.330 percent
