Market Roundup
• French Government Budget Balance (Feb) -40.3B, -30.2B forecast,-17.3B previous
• Spanish Unemployment Change (Mar) -13.3K, -2.5Kforecast, -6.0K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change - 118K forecast, 77K previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
•14:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.7% previous
•14:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 1.7% previous
•14:00 US Factory Orders Ex Transportation (MoM) 0.7% forecast, 0.2% previous
•14:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (March) 15.90M forecast, 16.00M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.400M forecast, -3.341M forecast
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•14:05 ECB’s Lane Speaks
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Event Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Wednesday as traders anxiously awaited details of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans, set to be revealed later in the day, which could influence market sentiment in the near term. The specifics of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff plans, which are expected to take effect immediately after being announced at 2000 GMT, were still being finalized and kept under wraps. French industry minister Marc Ferracci stated that Europe would respond proportionally to Trump’s likely tariffs but would avoid escalating tensions. The uncertainty surrounding the size and scope of U.S. tariffs, along with the potential reactions from other countries, has unsettled market sentiment. The euro last bought $1.0802 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0854(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0969(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0741(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0661(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump's long-anticipated tariff announcement, which could further dampen the already sluggish UK economy. Trump is set to unveil sweeping new reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners later in the day, with the announcement scheduled for 2000 GMT (2100 BST) in the White House's Rose Garden. While the details on the size and scope of the tariffs are still unclear, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that Trump’s team is considering raising duties on products by around 20% from nearly all countries. Meanwhile, Britain remains hopeful that any tariffs imposed by Trump could be reversed if both sides reach an agreement on a new economic partnership, according to the country’s business minister. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3007(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3052(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2849(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2818(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited details on U.S. tariffs that could potentially spark a global trade war. Attention is on the new round of reciprocal tariffs the White House is set to announce at 2000 GMT, which are expected to take effect immediately after Trump’s statement. Trump has already imposed tariffs on aluminum, steel, and autos, along with higher duties on Chinese goods, raising concerns about a trade war and a global economic slowdown. The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for emerging market currencies and risk assets, is particularly vulnerable during times of market volatility. At GMT 11:47, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.43% to $0.6304. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6313(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6358(March 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6258(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6232(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped lower on Wednesday as demand the safe-haven yen increased ahead of the anticipated U.S. tariff announcement. Market uncertainty surrounded the tariffs, set to be revealed at 2000 GMT, which President Donald Trump has referred to as Liberation Day. While the White House confirmed the imposition of new tariffs, it did not disclose specifics on their size or scope. Trump's tariff policies could potentially drive up inflation, slow economic growth, and escalate trade tensions. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda cautioned that the new U.S. tariffs could significantly impact global trade and warned of a possible blow to global economic growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.10(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.12(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.39(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.37(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares declined on Wednesday, dragged down by losses in healthcare stocks, as investors remained cautious ahead of the United States' announcement of reciprocal tariffs. There are concerns that these tariffs could signal the onset of slow global growth and rising inflation.
At GMT (11:54) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.74 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.37 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.66 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices remained steady on Wednesday after reaching an all-time high in the previous session, as investors remained cautious and awaited details of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans.
Spot gold rose 0.6% at $3,128.62 an ounce by 1024 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% at $3,163.00.
Oil prices were largely unchanged on Wednesday as traders remained cautious ahead of U.S. tariff announcements at 2000 GMT, fearing the tariffs could escalate the global trade war and reduce crude demand.
Brent futures were down 7 cents, or 0.09%, at $74.42 a barrel by 0858 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 5 cents, or 0.07%, to $71.15.
