Market Roundup
• Swiss CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
• Swiss CPI (YoY) (Mar) 0.3%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•HCOB Spain Services PMI (Mar) 54.7, 55.6 forecast, 56.2 previous
•HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Mar) 50.5, 51.9 previous
•HCOB Italy Services PMI (Mar) 52.0, 52.6 forecast, 53.0 previous
•HCOB France Composite PMI (Mar) 48.0, 47.0 forecast, 45.1 previous
•HCOB France Services PMI (Mar) 47.9, 46.6 forecast, 45.3 previous
07:55 EUR HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Mar) 51.3, 50.9 forecast, 50.4 previous
•HCOB Germany Services PMI (Mar) 50.9, 50.2 forecast, 51.1 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Mar) 50.9, 50.4 forecast, 50.2 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Mar) 51.0, 50.4 forecast, 50.6 previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar) 51.5, 52.0 forecast, 50.5 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 52.5, 53.2 forecast, 51.0 previous
•EU PPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.0%, 1.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,860K forecast, 1,856K previous
•12:30 US Exports (Feb) 269.80B previous
•12:30 US Imports (Feb) 401.20B previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 225K forecast, 224K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 224.00K previous
•12:30 US Trade Balance (Feb) -122.50B forecast, -131.40B previous
•12:30 Canada Exports (Feb) 74.46B previous
•12:30 Canada Imports (Feb) 70.49B previous
•12:30 Canada Trade Balance (Feb) 3.40B forecast, 3.97B previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar) 53.5 forecast, 51.6 previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 54.3 forecast, 51.0 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Mar) 54.4 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Mar) 53.9 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Mar) 52.2 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 53.0 forecast, 53.5 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Mar) 62.6 previous
•14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 27B forecast, 37B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.220% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.245% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Event Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose on Thursday as dollar weakened after President Donald Trump unveiled harsher-than-expected tariffs on U.S. trading partners, sending shockwaves through the markets. Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the U.S., along with higher duties on some of the country’s largest trading partners. Set to take effect on April 9, the tariffs are expected to target around 60 countries. This move escalates the trade war Trump reignited upon returning to the White House, fueling concerns that a full-scale trade war could slow global economic growth and drive up inflation. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen called the tariffs a significant blow to the global economy and warned that the 27-member bloc was ready to implement countermeasures if talks with the U.S. fail. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1144(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1283(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1009(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0877(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling surged to a six-month high against the dollar on Thursday as traders moved away from the U.S. currency following President Donald Trump’s announcement of expansive trade barriers, raising concerns about a potential global economic slowdown.Trump revealed on Wednesday that he would impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the U.S., along with higher duties on major trading partners like the European Union, China, India, and Vietnam.The UK, which was given the least severe U.S. import tariff of 10%, expressed confidence that a trade deal with the United States was nearing completion. The UK aimed to mitigate the impact of Trump’s tariffs, which could escalate into a global trade war, potentially harming its open economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3202(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3351(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3080(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.295(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rebounded strongly on Thursday as President Donald Trump's unexpectedly aggressive stance on reshaping global trade unsettled investors.U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a sweeping set of reciprocal tariffs that were particularly heavy on China and its main trading partners. On Wednesday, Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the U.S., along with higher duties on several other countries. Investors had been bracing for these tariffs over the past week, Washington's latest punitive measures turned out to be more aggressive than expected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6360(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6419(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6310(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6265(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped lower on Thursday as investors sought the safe-haven yen after Trump unleashed more aggressive-than-expected import tariffs, escalating the global trade war. Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports, with much higher rates for certain trading partners, especially in Asia. China was hit a 34% tariff, Japan 24%, Vietnam 46%, and South Korea 25%, while the European Union was hit with a 20% levy. Trump's actions are likely to intensify the global trade war, potentially slowing down global economic growth. At GMT 12:20 The dollar was last trading down 2.06% to 146.12. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.68(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.77(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 144.10(Sep26th low).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped on Wednesday, pressured by losses in healthcare stocks, as investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans, which some fear could slow global growth and drive up inflation.
At GMT (12:24) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.34 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.87 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 2.57 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices took a pause on Thursday after reaching a new all-time high, spurred by U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping import tariffs, which had pushed investors toward the safe-haven asset.
Spot gold was down 1.4% to $3,090.00 at 1130 GMT amid some profit-taking, having hit a record peak of $3,167.57 earlier in the day. U.S. gold futures were down 1.7% to $3,111.40.
Oil prices dropped by more than 3% on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, sparking concerns among investors that a global trade war could escalate, slowing economic growth and reducing fuel demand.
Brent futures were down $2.66, or 3.55%, to $72.29 a barrel by 0918 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $2.69, or 3.75%, to $69.02.
