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FED hike aftermath Series: FOMC may await Brexit vote and hike in July

San Francisco FED president John Williams, who has no vote this year thinks 2-3 rate hikes this year reasonable but that will be data dependent and at its June meeting FOMC will have to take into account the possibility of Brexit and its likely impact on U.S. economy, before going for a hike.

"We're going to have a lot better information by the middle of June about 'Brexit' and what polls show and how the markets are reacting……..clearly if there's an expectation that it actually will pass and the markets will react to that then we have to take that into consideration in terms of how it affects the U.S. economy and the outlook."

If that is the case, it makes more sense for FED to hike rates in July, since every meeting is live meeting and skip June.

FED has forecasted two rate hikes this year and one in July will still keep four months gap, if FED goes for the next in December.

However market is pricing much dovish FED. Just one hike this year and that in December. Even then it is just 52% probability.

 

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