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Gold is trading in narrow range between $1298 and $1276 for past 10 days. The yellow metal is holding strong despite strong global stock market. It is currently trading around $12.
The major three factors that drive gold prices
US dollar Index: strong. DXY is trading higher and jumped more than 100 pips on account of dovish ECB and Brexit uncertainty. The near term major resistance is around 96.30 (55-day EMA) and any break above targets 96.95/97.75.On the higher side any break above 97.75 confirms bullish continuation.(slightly negative for gold).
USD/JPY: weak. USD/JPY has recovered more than 70 pips from yesterday’s low. The pair should break below 107.50 for further weakness.It is currently trading around 108.92.Slightly negative for gold
US 10 year yield : US 10 year yield is slightly higher and has jumped more than 8% form low of 2.54%.The yield has declined sharply in past two months and lost nearly 22% from high of 3.25%.It is currently trading around 2.75%.Slightly negative for Gold.
US 2 year yield: It is trading around 2.57%. The spread between US 10 year and 2 year has declined to 18bpbs from 30 basis point. The spread between 5 year and 2- year yield has inverted (US 5 year yield trading below US2 year yield).
Gold technical
Major support $1183
On the higher side, yellow metal is facing strong psychological resistance around $1300 and break above will take the gold to next level till $1320.
The near term support is around $1276(20- day MA) and any violation below will drag the commodity down till $1266/$1252/$1242 /$1234.
It is good to buy on dips around $1284-85 with SL around $1270 for the TP of $1320.
