Gold is trading slightly higher after hitting 5- week low of $1281.The jump in US dollar index and rising US bond yield is putting pressure on yellow metal. Gold was one the best performer in Jan and has jumped more than $50 on account of dovish Fed and global uncertainty.
The major three factors that drive gold prices
US dollar Index: Bullish. DXY is trading higher for 6th consecutive day and jumped more than 100 pips from low of 95.82.The index is facing strong resistance 97.09 and any break above confirms further bullishness and a jump till 97.37 possible. (negative for for gold).
USD/JPY: strong. USD/JPY is consolidating after hitting high of 112.13.It is currently trading around 111.81. The near term resistance is around 112.20 and any break above targets 112.60/113. negative for gold.
US 10 year yield : US 10 year yield has declined more than 2.5% from high of 2.77%.The near term resistance is around 2.792% (300- day EMA).The yield has been trading weak for past two months and lost nearly 22% from high of 3.25%.It is currently trading around 2.711%.slightly positive for Gold.
US 2 year yield: It is trading around 2.545%. The spread between US 10 year and 2 year has declined to 18bpbs from 30 basis point. The spread between 5 year and 2- year yield has inverted (US 2 year yield trading above US 5 year yield).
Gold technical
On the higher side, yellow metal is facing near term resistance around $1290 and break above will take the gold to next level till $1300/$1311.70 (10- day MA)/$1316.The yellow metal should break above $1365 for further bullishness.
The near term support is around $1280 and any violation below will drag the commodity down till $1271/$1265.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1288-90 with SL around $1300 for the TP of $1265.
