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Though 88% of the economist expected a wait and watch move from Swedish central bank, risk bank surprised then with a 10 basis points rate cut and additional 45 billion purchase of bonds.
- Today's move might have surprised market participants, but it seems very much likely that Risk bank will continue its easing since inflation is still very low around 0.1%.
- Today's move by Risk bank has brought down the main refinancing rate to -0.35%.
- It will also purchase additional securities worth SEK 45 billion, which will begin in September and will be completed by end of year.
Next decision is scheduled on September 3rd, 2015.
As dollar seems to be returning to focus on monetary policy divergence, risk-reward favors buying dollar against Krona.
Trade recommendation -
- Buy USD/SEK at current level with stop around 8 and target around 9.2 as first and around 10 as second. Averaging the trade with dips buying is recommended.
As of now Dollar is trading at 8.43 against Krona.
