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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.



US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

Poll wrap: Morrison's ratings slump in Newspoll; Wentworth's huge difference in on-the-day and early voting

Oct 29, 2018 19:31 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 25-28 from a sample of 1,650, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (down one), 9% Greens...

Poll wrap: Labor slips in Newspoll, but gains in Ipsos, in Wentworth and in Victoria

Oct 16, 2018 15:12 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 11-14 from a sample of 1,707, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 37% Coalition (up one), 11%...

Poll wrap: Worst reaction to midterm PM change in Newspoll history; contrary polls in Dutton's Dickson

Aug 28, 2018 12:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted August 24-26 - the days following the leadership spill - from a sample of 1,780, gave Labor a massive 56-44 lead, a five point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 41%...

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Economy

Impact of Iran-Israel conflict on Stocks, Gold and Bitcoin

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. The information provided is for general purposes only. No information, materials, services and other content provided on this page constitute a solicitation, recommendation,...

Japan Posts 7.7% Growth in Machinery Orders

In a striking development that looks set to invigorate Japans economic prospects, a key gauge of capital spending in the country has seen its most significant jump in over a year. According to Cabinet Office data released...

How cuts to marginal income tax could boost the UK’s stagnant economic growth

The British prime minister recently claimed the UK economy has turned a corner. Rishi Sunak said inflation figures were encouraging, and proclaimed that 2024 would be the year Britain bounces back. According to his...

A sustainable future begins at ground level

In 2015, the United Nations adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a call to action in global partnership. By 2023 it appears that our progress has been far from satisfactory in achieving these...

Digital trade protocol for Africa: why it matters, what’s in it and what’s still missing

In February 2024, African heads of states adopted a draft protocol to regulate digital trade within the continent. This significant yet challenging course for Africas digital economy fits into the broader trade agreement,...

Politics

Canada needs a national strategy for homeless refugee claimants

One year after the federal government closed Roxham Road, refugee claims in Canada continue to increase: there were 143,785 in 2023 compared to 91,730 in 2022. The surprise announcement in March 2023 to modify Canadas...

Who will Trump pick as his running mate?

Being second in line for leadership of the most powerful country in the world is not an easy job. But for Mike Pence, vice president under Donald Trump, things were even harder than usual. As insurrectionists descended...

US and Japan Boost AI, Semiconductor Alliance; EU Eyes Reduction in China Dependence

Japan and the United States are poised to deepen ties in the high-tech sector, signaling a strategic move to enhance their global partnership with a focus on artificial intelligence and semiconductor...

US Finalizes Ban List for Chinese Chipmakers; Boosts Mexico Semiconductor Ties

The United States is finalizing a list of Chinese chip factories banned from receiving vital technology, aiming to curb Beijings tech advancements amid national security concerns. Concurrently, a US-Mexico semiconductor...

Science

If life exists on Jupiter’s moon Europa, scientists might soon be able to detect it

Europa is one of the largest of more than 90 moons in orbit around the planet Jupiter. It is also one of the best places to look for alien life. Often termed an ocean world by scientists, observations to date strongly...

Exploding stars are rare but emit torrents of radiation − if one happened close enough to Earth, it could threaten life on the planet

Stars like the Sun are remarkably constant. They vary in brightness by only 0.1% over years and decades, thanks to the fusion of hydrogen into helium that powers them. This process will keep the Sun shining steadily for...

An eclipse for everyone – how visually impaired students can ‘get a feel for’ eclipses

Many people in the U.S. will have an opportunity to witness nearly four minutes of a total solar eclipse on Monday, April 8, 2024, as it moves from southern Texas to Maine. But in the U.S., over 7 million people are blind...

How do airplanes fly? An aerospace engineer explains the physics of flight

Airplane flight is one of the most significant technological achievements of the 20th century. The invention of the airplane allows people to travel from one side of the planet to the other in less than a day, compared...

The mystery of consciousness shows there may be a limit to what science alone can achieve

The progress of science in the last 400 years is mind-blowing. Who would have thought wed be able to trace the history of our universe to its origins 14 billion years ago? Science has increased the length and the quality...

Technology

Apple Pulls WhatsApp, Threads from China Store; US Moves to Force TikTok Sale

Apple has removed WhatsApp and Threads from its China App Store following government orders, amid escalating tensions over app security. Concurrently, US Congress advances legislation requiring TikToks Chinese owner,...

Bitcoin Holders Transfer $1.7 Billion to Accumulation Wallets Amid Price Drop

In a bold display of confidence, Bitcoin investors moved a record $1.7 billion into accumulation wallets as the cryptocurrencys price dipped below $63,000 on April 16, highlighting a surge in buying during the market...

TSMC to Hike Prices for Chips Made Outside Taiwan, Impacting Global Device Costs

TSMC, the worlds leading chipmaker, announced that chips manufactured outside of Taiwan, such as those from its new Arizona plant, will cost more. This move could lead to higher prices for consumer electronics...

Canada Set to Enforce OECD Crypto Tax Standards by 2026

Canada has announced plans to adopt the OECDs Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) by 2026, aligning with global efforts to standardize cryptocurrency taxation. The move aims to enhance transparency and regulatory...
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