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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections.

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

Poll wrap: Morrison's ratings slump in Newspoll; Wentworth's huge difference in on-the-day and early voting

Oct 29, 2018 19:31 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 25-28 from a sample of 1,650, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (down one), 9% Greens...

Poll wrap: Labor slips in Newspoll, but gains in Ipsos, in Wentworth and in Victoria

Oct 16, 2018 15:12 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 11-14 from a sample of 1,707, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 37% Coalition (up one), 11%...

Poll wrap: Worst reaction to midterm PM change in Newspoll history; contrary polls in Dutton's Dickson

Aug 28, 2018 12:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted August 24-26 - the days following the leadership spill - from a sample of 1,780, gave Labor a massive 56-44 lead, a five point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 41%...

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Economy

Oil price reaches highest level since March due to promising vaccine, Biden transition

Oil surged to $47 a barrel Tuesday, its highest level since in March on Tuesday, due to AstraZenecas promising coronavirus vaccine that spurred demand recovery hopes and US President-elect Joe Bidens transition to the...

Taiwanese money supply continues to see strong growth, CBC likely to keep rates on hold in December

Taiwanese MIB and M2 money supply continued to record solid growth in the month of October. On a year-on-year basis, MIB money supply grew 12.85 percent, while M2 money supply rose 7.05 percent in the month. This is the...

UK inks stopgap trade deal with Canada to get ready for Brexit

The UK signed a stopgap agreement with Canada, allowing trade between the two countries to continue under the same terms as Canadas existing treaty with the EU. The two countries are working on a new bilateral...

UN agency's heavy fuel oil ban in Arctic criticized as outrageous

The Clean Arctic Alliance criticized as outrageous the UN agency International Maritime Organizations (IMO) ban on the use and carriage of heavy oil fuel (HFO) by ships in Arctic waters as it would come into effect only in...

Vietnam only Southeast Asian country poised for economic growth this year: IMF

Vietnam is the only Southeast Asian country identified by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to be on track for economic growth this year, forecast at 2.4 percent. The IMF attributed the countrys decisive steps to...

Politics

Donald Trump defeat: Secret Service detail on outgoing POTUS reportedly asked about post-presidency protection

Donald Trump has yet to formally concede to Joe Biden after the presidential elections earlier this month. Despite Trumps refusal to do so, his life post-White House seems to indicate his acknowledgment of defeat as his...

Melania Trump news: White House plans holiday parties amidst COVID-19 outbreaks

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, holidays are going to be spent differently, especially for Americans who will be celebrating Thanksgiving. However, the White House is set to plan holiday events indoors even as public...

Joe Biden wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania certified

With incoming-president Joe Biden moving forward in the transition period, states are beginning to certify the winner of their electoral votes. Following suit from the certification of Bidens win in Georgia, Michigan and...

World War 3: US announces the return of guided missile destroyer to be deployed in South China Sea

The recent conflicts that several nations have with China over control of the South China Sea have raised concerns about a possible conflict breaking out which could lead to World War 3. In an effort to ramp up military...

Science

Mars discovery: NASA's Curiosity Rover data suggests Red Planet was once habitable

With the upcoming space missions focusing on our own neighboring planet Mars, many are now looking into what the red planet once was. Recent data from NASAs Curiosity Rover is falling in line with the long-running belief...

COVID-19 cure: AstraZeneca develops coronavirus antibody drug cocktail that may also prevent infection for months

Many companies are already undergoing trials for a possible cure to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Aside from the developments made by Pfizer and Moderna in developing their respective vaccines, another pharmaceutical...

Asteroid alert: 2,700-foot space rock to fly by Earth this week

Asteroids pass by our planet on an almost everyday basis with some space rocks measuring bigger than others. NASAs asteroid trackers have spotted one large asteroid coming our way and making an approach this week. An...

NASA discovery: Experts say Hubble Space Telescope may have captured a black hole

Out of all the cosmic entities to exist in the universe, none has been as mysterious as the black hole, a phenomena that have yet to be witnessed. Experts at NASA recently claimed that the Hubble Space Telescope may have...

Technology

AirPods 3 could be launched in H1 2021, Ming-Chi Kuo predicts

It has been more than a year since the second generation of the entry-level AirPods was released, and its successor is expected to arrive next year. While the AirPods 3 is anticipated to sport a new form factor, it is a...

iOS 15 might no longer support three iPhone models in 2021

It has only been a few months since the iOS 14 update was released, but the potential list of compatible devices with iOS 15 already emerged online. Apple could ditch at least three devices next year, according to the...

iPad Pro 2021 might not have OLED displays yet

An article got Apple fans excited this week as it mentioned the preparations for OLED adoption have begun for iPad Pro models arriving in 2021. However, major display suppliers Samsung and LG Display, have reportedly...

‘Cyberpunk 2077’ will let players avoid nudity, developer confirms

It is already a known fact that Cyberpunk 2077 is a game not made for the younger audience. However, a developer also confirmed that players will have an option to avoid nudity once the RPG is out. Cyberpunk 2077...

‘Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War’ double XP event goes live with Nuketown ’84

One of the much-awaited post-launch content of Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War is the staple Nuketown gameplay, and it is finally available as of this writing. To encourage more players to dive into the 1984 version of...
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