It's a very busy week for UK events, with the BoE meeting tonight, IP data (Tues), BoE inflation report (Weds), and labour market report (Weds).
The BoE meeting should be a unanimous decision for no change, and a non-event. And while the inflation report offers more potential for surprise, on balance this month much change is not expected to the forecast and the message on policy- the first rate hike is expected in November 2015.
For April IP, the economists look for a print of 0.0%, and they look for tepid manufacturing production growth of 0.1% m/m (cons: 0.3%).
For the labour report, average earnings (ex-bonuses) is expected to jump from 1.8% 3m/y to 2.1% 3m/y (in line with consensus), as a result of base effects-and the economists point out that these figures will be more relevant to BoE policy over the next few months.
