ASML Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook as AI Chip Demand Surges

ASML Holding N.V. lifted its full-year 2026 revenue forecast after the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant surpassed first-quarter profit and sales expectations. The results were fueled by accelerating AI-driven chip demand, though tightening export restrictions on China continue to weigh on the company's longer-term outlook.

Shares edged up roughly 1% following the announcement. ASML now projects 2026 net sales between €36 billion and €40 billion, raised from the previous range of €34 billion to €39 billion. The new guidance straddles the €37.68 billion analyst consensus. For the second quarter, the company forecasts revenue of €8.4 billion to €9 billion, with a midpoint slightly below the €9.04 billion market estimate.

First-quarter net income came in at €2.76 billion, topping the €2.54 billion consensus estimate, while total net sales reached €8.77 billion against an expected €8.5 billion. Gross margin improved to 53%, up from 52.2% in the prior quarter, with basic earnings per share at €7.15.

CEO Christophe Fouquet credited the semiconductor industry's strengthening growth trajectory to sustained AI infrastructure investment, noting that chip demand is outpacing supply and prompting customers to fast-track capacity expansion plans. Memory chips made up 51% of new tool sales in the quarter, with South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix driving much of that growth.

South Korea represented 45% of quarterly sales, followed by Taiwan at 23%. Meanwhile, China's share dropped to 19% from 36% in the previous quarter amid escalating export control pressures. Proposed U.S. legislation targeting ASML's deep ultraviolet machines could further restrict Chinese sales.

Wall Street analysts remain split — Jefferies flagged potential valuation headwinds, while BofA Securities maintained a buy rating citing rising EUV capacity and improving earnings potential heading into 2027. ASML also announced a 17% dividend increase for 2025, reflecting confidence in its long-term fundamentals.