Absence of headwinds from net-exports and inventories likely pushed up Poland's Q4 2015 GDP

Poland Q4 2015 GDP data released on Monday showed headline GDP growth was 1.1% qoq. Data portrayed a stable economy at the close of 2015. Domestic demand contributed all of the growth during Q4.

Details showed that household consumption or fixed investment growth did not really accelerate in Q4; it was a pick-up in government spending and inventory re-building which contributed to the upward surprise.The contribution of domestic demand drivers did not change much between 2014 and 2015; but headwinds from net-exports and inventories disappeared.

"Growth prospects for this year depend very much on how well the German economy faces up to the Chinese downturn. We forecast 3.1% growth this year; we see EUR-PLN at 4.25 at end-2016." said Commerzbank in a report to clients.