Add as a preferred source on Google
Market Roundup
•Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.8%, 0.1% previous
• Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q2) 3.3%, 3.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
• Canada GDP (MoM) (Jun) 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q2) 2.50%, 1.20% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Jul) 0.0%, 0.3% previous
•US Chicago PMI (Aug) 47.1, 57.9 forecast, 57.6 previous
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) 4.0%, 4.3% forecast, 4.2% previous
•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Aug) 3.3%, 3.3% forecast, 3.3% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 51.7, 51.0 forecast, 55.2 previous
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug) 51.5, 50.6 forecast, 55.4 previous
•US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 447, 454 forecast, 452 previous
•US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 588, 588 previous
Looking Ahead Economic data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro weakened against dollar on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that interest-rate hikes could be needed if inflation fails to return toward the Fed’s 2% target.In his debut speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, Warsh said the Fed would “have work to do” if inflation does not show sufficient signs of cooling. He also noted that financial conditions do not appear restrictive, reinforcing expectations that further policy tightening could be required to contain price pressures.Following his remarks, the probability of at least a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the September meeting jumped to 57.5%, according to CME FedWatch, up from around 35% before the speech. The euro was off 0.59% at $1.1582 after falling to $1.1577, its lowest level since August 19.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1654(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1683(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1581(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1486(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling slipped lower against the dollar on Friday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that rate hikes could be needed if inflation does not appear to be returning toward the Fed’s 2% target. In his debut Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed may “have work to do” if inflation fails to cool, noting that financial conditions remain insufficiently restrictive and hinting that further rate hikes may be needed.Warsh’s comments followed concerns from three Fed officials about persistently above-target inflation. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins described the latest inflation data as “mixed” and said she still expects gradual disinflation. Expectations for at least a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September rose to around 50% after Warsh’s comments, up from roughly 35% before his speech.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3601(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3627(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3541(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3461(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a nine-day low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh offset upbeat Canadian GDP data. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the U.S. central bank will “have work to do” if policymakers are not confident that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, in his keynote speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Wyoming.Canada's economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the second quarter, after a revised 0.3% increase in the first quarter, aided by a strong jump in exports and solid domestic demand. According to a Reuters poll of economists, the BoC will keep its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% on Wednesday and leave it unchanged for at least another year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4029(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4043(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3927(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3909(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose higher against the yen on Friday after Fed Governor Kevin Warsh struck an upbeat tone on the U.S. economy and warned that inflation has remained elevated for too long. In his first Jackson Hole speech, Warsh said the Fed would have “more work to do” if inflation was not clearly moving toward the 2% goal at a sufficient pace. He also said recent inflation data had not indicated a meaningful change in the underlying trend, prompting traders to increase bets on a September rate hike.Markets are now closely divided between a September rate hike and a hold, reflecting the mixed inflation data released earlier this month.Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.21(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 161.22(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.93(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 158.23(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Friday as French stocks recovered from the previous session’s selloff, while investors assessed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.77 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.98 percent.
Wall Street’s main indexes ended lower on Friday as investors turned cautious after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin War.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.02% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.25% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.52% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices settled lower on Friday and also declined for the week as traders assessed signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve on its inflation-fighting stance, along with reports of a potential agreement to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures settled at $89.31 a barrel, down 39 cents, or 0.43%. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $83.40 a barrel, down 13 cents, or 0.16%.
Gold prices reversed earlier gains and fell more than 3% on Friday as traders raised expectations for an interest-rate hike following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments on curbing inflation.
Spot gold was down 2.9% at $4,567.23 per ounce by 01:44 p.m. EDT (1744 GMT), its lowest level since August 20. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 2.9% lower at $4,529.9.
