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Market Roundup
• German 6-Month Bubill Auction 2.717%, 2.768% previous
• German 12-Month Bubill Auction 2.949%, 3.065% previous
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.255%, 3.262% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.761%, 2.786% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.964%, 2.997% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
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Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Monday as dollar was supported by safe-haven demand as an escalating Middle East conflict kept investors cautious ahead of key US inflation data later this week. Oil prices were volatile after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis stepped up strikes on Saudi Arabia, and two tankers were attacked over the weekend. Weekly data from the US markets regulator shows investors have been adding to their bullish positions on the dollar, which rose to around $36 billion in the week to October 7 from $8.4 billion three weeks ago largely at the expense of the euro. Wednesday's US consumer inflation report, one of the last major economic releases before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting this month, could be critical in determining the near-term direction of the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1184(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1199(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1159(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1149(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower against the dollar on Monday, ahead of public appearances by a number of Bank of England officials, while investor wariness over developments in the Middle East kept volatility in check.US consumer price data due later in the week could help steer expectations for where US interest rates end the year, which, in turn, could affect expectations for other central banks, such as the BoE, that are also grappling with inflation stemming from the war in the Middle East. Money markets show traders are attaching roughly a 90% chance of the BoE raising rates at its next meeting on November 5 and expect it to deliver a series of hikes during 2027 that would bring the base rate to 4.75% in a year's time, from 3.75%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3222(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3255(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3191(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards1.3175(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dipped on Monday as investors looked ahead to key US inflation data.The market faces fresh challenges this week from US data on consumer and producer prices and retail sales. Rising energy costs are expected to lift CPI by a hefty 0.6% to an annual 3.7%, though the core is seen cooler at 0.2% and 2.5%.Markets imply only an 18% chance of a rate rise from the Federal Reserve this month, rising to an 85% chance of a hike in December. Investors are also wagering on hikes in the EU, Japan and Britain before the end of the year.Oil prices eased despite strikes on shipping and airports in the Gulf after US President Donald Trump unveiled an energy-related ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia and proposed that Moscow increase diesel exports. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6968(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6984(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6960 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6935(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday, supported by safe-haven demand amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, while investors awaited key U.S. inflation data due later this week for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.Market attention is shifting to Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, one of the last major economic releases before the Fed’s late-October policy meeting.The Fed raised interest rates last month for the first time since 2023 to curb inflation, prompting investors to closely monitor incoming economic data for signals of further policy tightening.Traders are pricing in an 81% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged this month, up from 51% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.73(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.58(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.62(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.32(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Monday and US futures held broadly steady as investors looked past a rise in oil prices and focused on the start of earnings season and key US inflation data.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.97 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.78 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.38 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased after touching a one-week high on Monday, pressured by a firmer dollar and higher oil prices, while investors awaited US inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory.
Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $4,172.36 per ounce by 9:44 a.m. EDT (1344 GMT), having hit its highest level since October 2 earlier in the session. US gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.5% to $4,196.20 per ounce.
Oil prices were up 2% at near two-week highs on Monday as attacks on Saudi Arabia overshadowed the prospect of increased supplies after US President Donald Trump hailed fresh Russian diesel exports and a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire on energy targets.
Brent crude futures were up $2.04, or 2%, to $106.76 a barrel at 11:07 a.m. EDT (1507 GMT), their highest since September 29. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $93.69 a barrel, up $1.84, or 2%.
