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Market Roundup
• US Crude Oil Inventories (Oct 2) -3.186M, 1.900M forecast, 0.922M previous
•US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (Oct 2) 0.444M, 0.553M previous
•US Crude Oil Imports (Oct 2) -0.053M, -0.468M previous
•US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) (Oct 2) 0.223M, -0.554M previous
•US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) (Oct 2) 0.2%, -1.5% previous
•US Gasoline Production (Oct 2) -0.117M, -0.124M previous
•US Gasoline Inventories (Oct 2) 0.382M, -1.700M forecast, -1.684M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 03:35 Japan 30-Year JGB Auction 4.100% previous
•05:00 Japan Economy Watchers Current Index (Sep) 46.7 forecast,46.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro tumbled on Wednesday as French bonds came under renewed pressure on fiscal concerns. Bond yields around the world have climbed in recent weeks due to expectations of central bank rate hikes as well as concerns about government finances. French debt is under growing pressure as politicians struggle to curb the budget deficit ahead of a divisive election in 2027. The calling of a snap election in Spain added to the pressure on the euro.The French 10-year yield surged 11.9 basis points, on track for its biggest daily jump in two weeks, to 4.8696% while the German 10-year bond yield was unchanged at 3.4805%.France's economic situation is serious, given the rise in its borrowing costs, but the country does not at this point need help from the European Central Bank, Bank of France head Emmanuel Moulin said.The euro slumped 0.53% to $1.1198, closing in on the 17-month lows hit on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1284(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1385(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1165(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1081(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Wednesday as surging bond yields and elevated oil prices kept the risk-off mood firm in markets.Crude prices rose, with Brent futures holding around $101 a barrel, as investors weighed higher Gulf exports against persistent supply risks from the Middle East conflict and a storm approaching US oil-producing regions.The sharp global bond selloff could increase pressure on finance minister John Healey ahead of his first budget.On the data front, British house prices were flat in September after recording their first annual decline since 2023 in August, according to Lloyds data, which came in weaker than analysts had expected.Money markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in November, which would lift the policy rate to 4%, with four further hikes expected by mid-next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3297(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3339(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3155(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3104 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart on Wednesday as a downturn in risk appetite helped drive broad-based gains for the greenback and investors weighed minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting. The US dollar rose against a basket of major currencies as renewed pressure on French bonds due to fiscal concerns weighed on the euro . Fed policymakers were divided last month over the rationale for raising interest rates, with "some participants" seeing a hike as needed to keep the impact of energy and other price shocks at bay, but a more hawkish core viewing it as necessary to guard against emerging demand-driven inflation.The loonie was trading 0.3% lower at 1.4255 per US dollar, after moving in a range of 1.4207 to 1.4280.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4292(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4357(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4181(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4119 (SMA 20).
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar edged lower against the yen as investors digested the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed that some officials believe the central bank should prepare for potential stress in the bond market.The unnamed policymakers suggested strengthening the Fed’s strategy, communication and tools for responding to possible market dysfunction, while seeking to limit its presence in the Treasury market.The comments came as Fed officials assessed market conditions during a period of heightened volatility. At last month’s meeting, the central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% as policymakers continued efforts to contain elevated inflation. Officials also projected another rate increase before the end of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.98(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.82(61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.41(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares closed sharply lower on Wednesday after three straight sessions of gains, as higher oil prices and a rise in bond yields sapped risk appetite.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.79 percent, Germany's Dax ended down 1.32%, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.222percent.
Wall Street finished lower on Wednesday as a renewed surge in long-term Treasury yields fueled concerns over persistent inflation and mounting debt, a day after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record closes.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.66 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.22% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.22% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to a two-month low on Wednesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields reduced demand for the non-yielding metal.
Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,113.89 per ounce by 2:12 p.m. EDT (1812 GMT), touching its lowest level since August 5. US gold futures for December delivery settled 1.1% lower at $4,140.70.
Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday after a volatile session, as the International Energy Agency agreed to accelerate the release of oil stocks and prioritize diesel supplies to ease record-high fuel prices amid tightening global supplies caused by the Iran war.
Brent crude futures settled down 38 cents, or 0.38%, at $100.20 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled down $1.16, or 1.3%, to $88.28.
