Market Roundup
• France 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.634%, 2.694% previous.
• France 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.248%, 2.253% previous.
• France 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.448%, 2.509% previous.
•US Existing Home Sales (Mar): 3.98M, 4.07M forecast, 4.13M previous
•US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Mar): -3.6%, 2.7% previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.620%, 3.635% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.610%, 3.615% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 02:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (Mar): -1 previous
• 02:30 Australia NAB Business Survey (Mar): 7 previous previous
• 04:00 China Exports (YoY) (Mar): 8.3% forecast, 21.8% previous
• 04:00 China Imports (YoY) (Mar): 11.1% forecast, 19.8% previous
• 04:00 China Trade Balance (USD) (Mar): 107.50B forecast, 213.62B previous
• 05:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb): -2.1%forecast, -2.1% previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro gained against dollar on Monday as investors held out hopes that a resolution between the U.S. and Iran was near despite failed talks over the weekend . Tensions lingered in the Middle East as the U.S. military began a blockade of ships leaving Iran's ports, and Tehran threatened to retaliate against ports of its Gulf neighbors after weekend talks on ending the war broke down.U.S. President Donald Trump said Tehran had been in touch and wanted to make a deal, but he would not sanction any agreement allowing them to have a nuclear weapon. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, shed 0.18% to 98.54, with the euro up 0.15% at $1.1737 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1772(61.8%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1546(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The British pound recovered most of early fall against stronger dollar on Monday as hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East helped investors look past the failed U.S.-Iran talks. President Donald Trump said on Sunday the U.S. Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz after the two sides failed to reach a deal to end the war, jeopardising a fragile two-week ceasefire. U.S. Central Command said forces would begin implementing the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports from 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on Monday. President Donald Trump warned on Sunday that the price of oil and gasoline could remain elevated, opens new tab through the midterm election as a result of his decision to attack Iran. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3542(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3633(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3459(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3340(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar rose to a near three-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as concerns eased over the breakdown in U.S.-Iran peace talks, while markets also focused on Canada’s upcoming special elections, which could secure a majority government for Prime Minister Mark Carney.The deadline for the start of a U.S. military blockade of ships departing Iranian ports passed without immediate escalation, even as Tehran warned of possible strikes on Gulf ports following the failure of weekend talks to end the conflict.Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil one of Canada’s key export drivers rose around 2.6% to $99.08 a barrel, though it remained well below its intraday highs as volatility persisted in energy markets.The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3795 per U.S. dollar , after clawing back its earlier declines.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3835(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3874(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3750 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3697(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Monday as lingering geopolitical tensions following the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks over the weekend kept markets on edge. Sentiment remained cautious amid uncertainty over the next steps in the escalating conflict.Concerns deepened after the U.S. military announced plans to begin a blockade of maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, raising fears of a breakdown in the fragile ceasefire and further escalation of the conflict. Brent crude futures settled up $4.16 or 4.37% at $99.36 a barrel. U.S. crude settled $2.51 or 2.6% higher, at $99.08 a barrel. Rising energy prices have prompted investors to prepare for the possibility that central banks will lean towards raising rates. Money markets show traders see less than a 20% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.86(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.16(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 158.78(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Monday as hopes for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict faded after the collapse of U.S.–Iran negotiations and rising tensions over a possible Strait of Hormuz blockade, which also pushed oil prices higher and weighed on risk sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.26 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.29 percent.
Wall Street stocks rose on Monday, while oil retreated from highs above $100 a barrel as the U.S. said it continued to engage with Tehran on reaching a deal, even as it moved to block Iranian ports following the collapse of weekend peace talks.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.63 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.02 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.23 percent.
Commodities Recap
Brent crude futures LCOc1 settled up $4.16 or 4.37% at $99.36 a barrel. U.S. crude settled $2.51 or 2.6% higher, at $99.08 a barrel. The benchmarks had risen $8 and more than $9 respectively earlier in the session.
Gold prices slipped on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and renewed inflation concerns that clouded the outlook for future interest-rate cuts after U.S.-Iran peace talks collapsed over the weekend.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,734.50 per ounce as of 1:37 p.m. ET (1737 GMT), after hitting its lowest since April 7 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% lower at $4,767.40.
