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Market Roundup
•US Initial Jobless Claims 197K, 200K forecast, 199K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,716K, 1,710K forecast, 1,699K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 198.00K, 200.50K previous
•US Wholesale Trade Sales (Aug) 1.8%, 1.0% previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (Aug) 0.5%, 0.7% forecast, 1.4% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage 85B, 79B forecast, 64B previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.980%, 3.890% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.980%, 3.990% previous
•US 30-Year Bond Auction 5.618%, 5.308% previous
•US Fed's Balance Sheet 6,748B, 6,743B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (Sep) 64.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro edged higheras dollar retreated on Thursday as a rise in euro zone bond yields stalled, while expectations for the path of interest rates from the Federal Reserve this year remained largely intact.Expectations for a rate hike from the Fed at its policy meeting later this month remain subdued, after minutes released on Wednesday from the central bank's most recent meeting showed policymakers viewed inflation as the biggest risk to their outlook, and analysts said they offered no surprises.US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that additional rate hikes will likely be needed to lower inflation to the Fed's 2% target, but added there was "flexibility" about the pace of increases and left the door open for a pause at the Fed's upcoming October meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1294(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1393(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1188(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1111(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound gained some traction against the dollar on Thursday as investors digested Bank of England policymakers Megan Greene and Andrew Bailey comments.Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene said on Thursday that the central bank should not rely on elevated bond yields to curb inflation.Greene voted in favour of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike to 4% in June, July and September. Financial markets expect a majority of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to support raising rates to 4% at its next meeting in early November.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Thursday that governments need to strengthen efforts to restore confidence in their public finances as global bond markets face pressure from high borrowing costs and inflation linked to the Iran war.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said fiscal policies must remain credible to reassure investors and limit demands for higher borrowing returns. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3297(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3339(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3165(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3111 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD : The Canadian dollar edged lower against the US dollar on Thursday as the yield gap between the two countries narrowed from the historically wide levels recorded earlier in the week, while investors awaited Canada's monthly employment report.Canada's two-year government bond yield was trading around 152 basis points below its US equivalent, compared with a spread of 158 basis points on Monday, the widest since February 2025.Oil prices, supported by persistent concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions and increased attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, also remained in focus. US crude oil futures rose 3.1% to $91.02 a barrel, providing potential support for the Canadian dollar, given Canada's status as a major oil exporter.Investors are now awaiting Canada's September employment report, due on Friday, for fresh insight into the health of the economy amid escalating trade uncertainty. Economists expect employment to increase by 9,200 jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 6.5% from 6.4% in August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4290(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4359 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4154 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4125 (SMA20).
USD /JPY : The US dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen on Thursday as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s uncertain interest-rate outlook amid mounting concerns over elevated US debt levels.Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting revealed divisions among policymakers over the need for further rate increases. While some officials viewed a hike as necessary to prevent energy and other price shocks from fuelling broader inflation, a more hawkish group argued that tighter monetary policy was needed to contain emerging demand-driven price pressures.Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that additional rate hikes would likely be necessary, although he highlighted flexibility over the pace of increases and left the door open to a pause in October.Geopolitical tensions remained in focus, with tankers facing an increased risk of attacks and intimidation while transporting critical shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.62(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.56(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.46(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 157.29(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Thursday as banks slid to a more than three-month low, while a fresh bond selloff and elevated oil prices stoked fears that higher inflation could hurt economic growth.
.UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.18 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.51 percent.
US stocks fell on Thursday as surging crude prices, driven by escalating Middle East tensions and reduced US output, fuelled inflation concerns and expectations of higher interest rates, while semiconductor shares slumped.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.10% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.47 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.25% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold recovered slightly on Thursday following a sharp decline to a two-month low in the previous session, with markets weighing uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path against mounting worries about high US debt.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,126.78 per ounce by 2:16 p.m. EDT (1816 GMT), having touched its lowest level since August 5 on Wednesday as a firmer dollar and higher US Treasury yields weighed.US gold futures for December delivery settled 0.4% to $4,157.
Oil prices settled 4% higher on Thursday as renewed concerns over the ongoing Middle East conflict and potential supply disruptions from a hurricane approaching the US Gulf Coast supported prices.
Brent crude climbed $4.08, or 4.1%, to settle at $104.28 a barrel, while WTI rose $3.21, or 3.6%, to $91.49. Both contracts gained more than $5 at one point, pushing Brent to its highest level since September 29 as fears of possible US military action against Iran and an approaching Hurricane Isaias fuelled supply concerns.
