Market Roundup
• US Redbook (YoY): 6.7%, 7.2% previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Dec): -0.1%, 0.0% previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Dec): 1.4%, 1.3% forecast, 1.4% previous
• Spanish Consumer Confidence (Jan): 80.5, 75.9 previous
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Dec): 0.5%, 0.5% previous
• US House Price Index (YoY) (Dec): 1.8%, 2.1% previous
• US House Price Index (Dec): 440.4, 439.7 previous
• US House Price Index (MoM) (Dec): 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:30 Australia Construction Work Done (Q4 QoQ): 1.2% forecast, -0.7% previous.
•00:30 Australia CPI (Jan QoQ): 0.6% previous.
•00:30 Australia CPI (Jan YoY): 3.6% previous.
•00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (Jan QoQ): 0.9% previous.
•00:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (Jan YoY): 3.3% forecast, 3.4% previous.
•00:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (Jan YoY): 3.70% forecast, 3.80% previous.
•00:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (Jan QoQ): 0.9% previous.
•00:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (Jan YoY): 3.2% previous.
•00:30 Australia CPI Index Number: 100.30 previous.
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Tuesday as traders awaited clarity on U.S. tariff plans and the outcome of talks between Washington and Tehran. Washington’s latest tariff threats are clouding the outlook for global trade, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump's use of a 1977 emergency law to impose tariffs exceeded his authority. Euro zone inflation and the European Central Bank's interest rate policy remain in a "good place," ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday, repeating her long-standing guidance, which signals that policy change is not being considered. Meanwhile, Iran and the U.S. will hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva, amid growing concerns about the risk of military conflict between the longtime adversaries.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Tuesday as investors digested Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey comments and monitored potential fallout from new U.S. tariffs. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday that an interest rate cut in March was a possibility although services price inflation in recent data which is closely watched by the central bank had not fallen as much as hoped.Bailey told lawmakers he would need further evidence to feel confident about cutting borrowing costs at its policy announcement on March 19, having voted with a 5-4 majority on the Monetary Policy Committee to hold interest rates this month.Meanwhile, Investors are grappling with fresh uncertainty over U.S. tariffs after a 10% levy took effect just after midnight Tuesday, according to a Customs notice. The timing of President Donald Trump’s proposed increase to 15% remains unclear. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday after preliminary data showed a decline in factory sales, while uncertainty over North American trade talks weighed on sentiment.The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which protects most Canadian exports from U.S. tariffs, is scheduled for review ahead of the July 1 deadline. Preliminary estimates showed Canadian factory sales likely declined 3.3% in January from December, mainly due to weaker transportation equipment and machinery sales..Oil prices, a key driver of Canada’s export, fell 0.8% to $65.81 per barrel as traders awaited updates from nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3732(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3755(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3639(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3616(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed on Tuesday as Japanese yen slipped after a news report that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had conveyed her reservations about further interest rate hikes to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, raising doubts over the next rate increase.The report, if true, signals potential friction over monetary policy that could complicate the BOJ's timetable as coordination with the newly strengthened administration becomes more delicate.Before the report, a majority of economists polled by Reuters had expected the BOJ to raise rates to 1% by end-June, while markets had priced in a roughly 70% chance of a hike by April.Traders are now pricing in 51% odds of a hike in April, and a 65% chance of a hike by June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.10(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.23(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.98 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.82 (Feb 18th low).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed Tuesday, mirroring Wall Street’s stronger risk appetite, though investors remained cautious pending clarity on U.S. trade policy after last week’s court decision on Donald Trump’s tariffs.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.02 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.09 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.22 percent.
Wall Street ended higher on Tuesday, led by tech stocks, as renewed AI optimism outweighed concerns about potential disruptions from the emerging technology.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.76 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.77 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.05% percent
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped Tuesday from a three-week high as profit-taking and a stronger dollar weighed, with traders awaiting clarity on U.S. tariff plans and the outcome of Washington-Tehran talks.
Spot gold fell 1.4%to $5,158.24 per ounce by 01:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 0.9% lower at $5,176.30.
Oil prices fell 1% on Tuesday after Iran signaled it was ready to take necessary steps toward a nuclear deal with the U.S., following weeks of heightened American military deployment in the Middle East.
Brent futures settled at $70.77 per barrel, down 72 cents, or 1%. WTI futures also fell 1%, settling at $65.63, down 68 cents.
