Market Roundup
•Canada Housing Starts (Aug) 217.4K, 252.0K forecast, 279.5K previous
•US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Retail Control (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%, -0.2% forecast, 1.1% previous
•US Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 2.13%, 2.86% previous
•US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
• Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.0%, 2.2% forecast, 2.2% previous
• Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) 1.5%, 1.7% previous
• Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) -0.1%, 0.3% previous
• Canada CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.0%, 2.5% previous
• Canada CPI (MoM) (Aug) -0.2%, 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
• Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.3%, 2.2% forecast, 2.4% previous
• Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.4%, 2.5% forecast, 2.7% previous
• US Redbook (YoY) 4.6%, no forecast, 6.5% previous
• US Capacity Utilization Rate (Aug) 78.0%, 77.9% forecast, 77.4% previous
• US Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) 0.04%, -0.74% previous
• US Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) 0.8%, 0.2% forecast, -0.9% previous
• US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) 0.9%, -0.7% previous
• US NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep) 41, 41 forecast, 39 previous
• US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jul) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 3.0%, 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:00 Australia Aug MI Leading Index (MoM) -0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Tuesday following a series of strong U.S. economic reports and improved sentiment ahead of Wednesday's expected Fed rate cut. August U.S. retail sales rose 0.1%, defying forecasts for a 0.2% decline. August industrial production, July business inventories, and September homebuilder sentiment all exceeded expectations. The U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be closely watched, with markets pricing in a 61% chance of a 50-basis-point cut and a total of 120 basis points in easing for 2024. The Bank of England and Bank of Japan also meet this week, but both are anticipated to keep rates unchanged . Immediate resistance is noted at 1.1142 (23.6%fib), with a breakout potentially pushing the pair towards 1.1191 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1075 (Sep 16th low), a drop below this level could lead the pair towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The British eased against the dollar on Tuesday as traders geared up for UK inflation data, a Bank of England meeting and an expected start to a U.S. easing cycle this week. All attention will turn towards the U.S. Federal Reserve this week where they are expected to announce at least a 25-basis-point cut to interest rates at the conclusion of its September policy meeting on Wednesday. While the Bank of England is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, after a 25-basis-point cut last month.UK Inflation data, due for release on Wednesday, will be crucial ahead of the BoE's policy decision. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3220(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3256(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3121(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3033(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar slipped against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as domestic inflation data hinted that the Bank of Canada might align with a potential large rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Canada's annual inflation rate slowed to 2% in August, down from 2.5% in July, matching the BoC's target and marking the slowest pace since February 2021. Analysts had anticipated a slight slowdown to 2.1%.The loonie was last trading 0.1% lower at 1.3595 per U.S. dollar, after trading in a range of 1.3581 to 1.3616. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3616 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3667(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3573(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3511 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Tuesday as robust economic data eased fears of a slowdown and investors anticipated the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in over four years. August's U.S. retail sales and a rebound in factory production bolstered the dollar, potentially diminishing the need for a more aggressive cut. The dollar recovered from recent lows against major currencies, with the index measuring its performance rising 0.28% to 100.98. It climbed 1.19% against the yen, reaching 142.29.Top of FormBottom of FormStrong resistance can be seen at 143.59(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 140.00 (Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 139.37(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 recorded its highest closing level in two-weeks on Tuesday, as global markets remained upbeat on the prospects of the U.S. Federal Reserve possibly opting for an outsized interest rate cut later this week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.38 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.50 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.51 percent.
U.S. stocks closed nearly unchanged on Tuesday, surrendering earlier gains that had lifted the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to record highs. Investors remained cautious as they anticipated the Federal Reserve's rate cut.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.04 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.03 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose as the industry continued to survey the impact of Hurricane Francine on output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
U.S. crude settled 1.57% higher at $71.19 a barrel. Brent finished the day at $73.7 per barrel, up 1.31%.
Spot gold slid 0.51% to $2,569.51 an ounce, having touched a record high on Monday.
