Market Roundup
• Japan Jul Household Spending (MoM) -1.7%,-0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
• Japan Jul Household Spending (YoY) 0.1%,1.2% forecast, -1.4% previous
• Australia Jul Home Loans (MoM) 2.9%,1.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
• Australia Jul Invest Housing Finance (MoM) 5.4%,2.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 06:00 UK Aug Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 4.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
• 06:00 UK Aug Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous
• 06:00 German Jul Exports (MoM) 1.0% forecast,-3.4% previous
• 06:00 German Jul German Imports (MoM) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• 06:00 German Jul Industrial Production (MoM) -0.4% forecast, 1.4% previous
• 06:00 German Jul German Trade 21.0B forecast, 20.4B previous
• 06:45 French Jul Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
• 06:45 French Jul Trade Balance -6.5B, -6.1B previous
• 07:00 Switzerland Aug Foreign Reserves (USD) 703,510.0B previous
• 07:00 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate 33 forecasts, -19 previous
•09:00 EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q2) 0.8% forecasts, 1.0% previous
•09:00 EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2) 0.2% forecasts, 0.3% previous
•09:00 EU Employment Overall (Q2) 168,403.5K forecasts, 168,082.0K previous
•09:00 EU GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.3% forecasts, 0.3% previous
•09:00 EU GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.6% forecasts, 0.4%previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
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Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro was little changed against the dollar on Friday as investors awaited U.S. employment data for further clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Global investors have been cautious this week due to signs of slowing U.S. economic growth, with uncertainty about the extent of potential policy easing at the Fed’s September 17-18 meeting. The August employment report, set for release on Friday, is crucial for assessing the likely size of rate cuts before inflation data is released later this month. Market expectations still lean towards a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee's upcoming meeting, with a roughly 40% chance of a 50-basis-point cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The euro held its ground at $1.1112, just below Thursday's one-week high of $1.11195. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1118(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1185(Aug 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1039(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0958 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling remained largely unchanged against the dollar on Friday as investors awaited U.S. employment data, which could influence currency markets. A report on Thursday showed a decline in new jobless benefit claims, easing concerns of a rapidly deteriorating labor market, following earlier data that revealed private sector job growth had hit a 3.5-year low in August. The mixed data left traders uncertain ahead of Friday's payrolls report, with economists predicting an increase of 165,000 jobs in August, up from 114,000 in July. Sterling held steady at $1.31755, close to its overnight high of $1.31855, the strongest level since August 30.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3200(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3265(Aug 27th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3092(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(61.8%fib).
.AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady Friday as investors awaited U.S. jobs data, which is expected to provide insights into the pace of rate cuts by Fed. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report is crucial, especially after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that further weakening in the labor market could prompt a September rate cut. Analysts expect an increase of 165,000 new jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.Bets for a 50-basis-point (bp) cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve have risen to 41% from 34% a week ago, but traders still see a 59% chance that the reduction will just be 25 bps, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.The Aussie was flat at $0.6739 AUD=D3, having eased 0.4% for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6753(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6816(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6688(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6634(61.8%fib).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar eased slightly against the U.S. dollar on Friday investors on tenterhooks ahead of U.S. jobs data that could decide the size and speed of coming rate cuts in the world's largest economy. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls data is due at 1230 GMT. Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Bank of New York President John Williams are also scheduled to speak later in the day. The near-term direction depends on the payrolls report as a run of softer data suggests the risks are to the downside, and a weak outcome would stoke speculation of an outsized rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Sept. 18. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6265(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6312 (29th Aug high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6128(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar hit one month low against the yen on Friday as greenback continued to decline as investors processed mixed economic data and awaited the critical U.S. jobs report. Data released on Thursday showed that U.S. private employers added the fewest number of workers in 3.5 years in August, suggesting a potential sharp slowdown in the labor market. However, the number of Americans filing new jobless claims declined last week. The August non-farm payroll report is anticipated to provide clarity on the pace of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts at its September meeting, with economists forecasting an increase of 160,000 jobs, up from 114,000 in July. The dollar fell 0.3% to 143.35 against the Japanese yen, reaching a one-month low. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.22 (Sep 5th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.77 (38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.79 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 141.88 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei share average declined on Friday as investors awaited the key U.S. jobs data scheduled for later in the day.
The Nikkei was down 0.24% at 36,568.05 by midday, after initially opening 0.43% higher. The index is on track for a 5% decline for the week.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged higher in early trading on Friday as investors balanced a significant U.S. crude inventory draw and a delay in OPEC+ production hikes against mixed U.S. employment data.
Brent crude futures rose 19 cents, or 0.26%, to $72.88 at 0010 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 22 cents, or 0.32%, to $69.37.
Gold prices held steady on Friday and were on track for a weekly gain, as market attention shifted to the crucial U.S. payrolls report, which is expected to provide clearer insight into the potential extent of rate cuts this month.
Spot gold held its ground at $2,516.19 per ounce, as of 0047 GMT, after hitting a nearly one-week high in the previous session.U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% higher to $2,546.00.
