Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.097%, 2.055% previous.
•French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.030%, 2.008% previous.
•French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.065%, 2.027% previous.
•US S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 51.0, 50.4 previous.
•US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 51.6, 51.2 previous.
•US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 52.4, 52.6 previous.
•US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb): 48.8, 48.1 previous.
•US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Feb): 70.5, 59.0 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT
• 00:30 Australia Current Account (Q4) -16.5B forecast, -16.6B previous
• 00:30 Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Jan) 5.7% forecast, -14.9% previous
• 00:30 Australia Net Exports Contribution (Q4) -0.1% previous
• 00:30 Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Jan) 13.30% previous
• 00:30 Australia Private House Approvals (Jan) 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro declined on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran increased fears of a prolonged conflict. The military action reportedly led to the death of Iran’s supreme leader and triggered widespread regional retaliation, heightening concerns that the Middle East conflict could expand further. U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks that the conflict could last up to four weeks added to market uncertainty.Investors are also focused on a series of key U.S. economic releases this week, including the retail sales data, and the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report. Any weaker-than-expected data could hurt confidence in the U.S. economic outlook after a soft fourth quarter, but could also increase expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1797(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1818(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1694(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1626(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling fell to a 2½-month low against the U.S. dollar as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Expectations regarding the Bank of England’s future policy path also added pressure on the British currency. Domestic political developments further weighed on sentiment after a local election defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party in northern England, fueling speculation that the government could shift further left and increase public spending.Meanwhile, U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran continued with no clear signs of de-escalation, while Iran responded with missile attacks across parts of the region, raising the risk of broader regional conflict. Markets were closely watching the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas trade flows. Although the strategic waterway has not been blocked, shipping and tracking data showed oil tankers accumulating on either side of the strait due to security risks and potential insurance constraints. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3439(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3554(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3250(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against dollar as safe-haven gains for the greenback countered a jump in oil prices and domestic data that showed increased factory sector activity. The U.S. dollar rose the most since July against a basket of major currencies as the U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran expanded.The price of oil was up 5.9% at $70.96 a barrel as the conflict forced shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East and disrupted shipping in the crucial Strait of Hormuz.Oil is one of Canada's major exports. Much of those exports go to the United States but Canada has ambitions to diversify its trade.The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a measure of factory sector health, rose to 51.0 last month from 50.4 in January, posting its highest level since January 2025. A reading above 50 shows expansion in the sector. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3712 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3743 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3654(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3540 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose on Monday as investors moved toward safety of dollar following U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran. The escalating U.S.-Iran tensions over the weekend could make it harder for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to decide on further rate hikes, as the conflict may slow economic growth while pushing inflation higher through rising crude oil prices.The BOJ ended its long-running, decade-old stimulus program in 2024 and implemented several rate increases, including one in December, based on confidence that Japan was steadily progressing toward sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target. BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said the central bank is likely to continue raising interest rates but did not provide details on the timing of the next move, as uncertainty from Middle East geopolitical tensions continues to cloud the economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.48(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.84(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.94 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 154.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks posted their largest one-day drop in three months on Monday, with the pan-European STOXX 600 sliding sharply as risk assets sold off amid fears the U.S.–Israeli war against Iran could widen further and unsettle markets.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.20 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 2.42 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 2.17 percent.
U.S. stocks finished mixed on Monday, recovering from early losses during a volatile session after U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran unsettled global markets..
Dow Jones closed down by 0.15 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.04 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.36 percent.
Commodities Recap
Safe‑haven gold rose on Monday in response to concerns of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $5,297.31 an ounce by 1831 GMT, having pared some gains as profit‑taking set in after the metal rose more than 2% earlier in the session. Prices hit a record of $5,594.82 on January 29.U.S. gold futures settled 1.2% higher at $5,311.60.
Oil surged sharply on Monday after Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation forced shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East and severely disrupted shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about 20% of global oil supplies.
Brent crude futures rose as much as 13% to $82.37 a barrel, highest since January 2025, before settling up $4.87, or 6.7%, at $77.74 a barrel.
