Market Roundup
•Euro loses ground after ECB news, dollar gain on U.S. data
•Wall Street gains after GDP data eases recession worries
•Oil stocks gain with data, Red Sea in focus
•ECB Jan Interest Rate Decision 4.50%,4.50% forecast,4.50% previous
•ECB Jan Deposit Facility Rate 4.00%,4.00% forecast,4.00% previous
•ECB Jan ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.75%,4.75% previous
•US Dec Chicago Fed National Activity -0.15,0.03 previous
•US Dec Goods Trade Balance-88.46B,-88.70B forecast,-90.27B previous
•Canada Nov Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 4.10%, 4.03% previous
•US Dec Initial Jobless Claims214K,200K forecast,187K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,833K,1,828K forecast,1,806K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 202.25K,203.25K previous
•Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -0.6%,1.2% previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 0.4%,-0.2%forecast,-0.2% previous
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q4) 2.8%,3.1% previous
•US Dec Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.3%,0.1% forecast,0.8% previous
•US Dec Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.6% ,-0.9% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 3.3%,2.0% forecast,4.9% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q4) 3.2%,3.6% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q4) 2.00%,2.00% forecast,2.00% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q4) 1.7%, 2.6% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 1.5%,2.3% forecast,3.3% previous
•US Dec Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.6%,0.2% forecast,0.5% previous
•US Dec Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.0%,1.1% forecast,5.4% previous
•US Dec New Home Sales (MoM) 8.0%,-12.2% previous
• US Dec New Home Sales 664K,645K forecast,590K previous
• US Natural Gas Storage-326B,-322B forecast,-154B previous
• US Jan KC Fed Manufacturing Index -17,-4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Thursday after Europe's central bank kept rates unchanged. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at a record-high 4% and ECB President Christine Lagarde said it was premature to discuss rate cuts but noted that risks to economic growth are tilted to the downside. Money markets priced in an 80% chance of the first rate cut of 25 basis points in April, from 60% before the ECB statement. They also fully factored in 50 bps of cuts by June .The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was up 0.21%. The euro was down 0.4% on the day at $1.0841, having lost 1.77% in a month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0934(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0970(Jan 15th High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0850(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0832(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as traders digested economic data to predict the future for US interest rates. The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter amid strong consumer spending, with growth for the full year coming in at 2.5%. The report also showed fourth-quarter inflation pressures subsiding. Another set of data showed initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 20 rose to 214,000, higher than the estimated 200,000 figure. Focus now shifts to the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data due on Friday. Sterling was down 0.2% at $1.2704 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2757(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2813(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2682 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2649 (Jan 23rd low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, recovering from an earlier eight-day low, as signs of a soft landing for the U.S. economy bolstered investor sentiment. The Canadian currency touched its weakest intraday level since Jan. 17 at 1.3534. It was pressured on Wednesday by concern that a downturn in the domestic economy could deepen as the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate on hold at a 22-year high of 5% and said it was too soon to discuss cutting rates.The loonie was trading 0.2% higher at 1.35 to the greenback . It was the only Group of Ten currency to post gains against the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3524 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3552(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3557 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3390(61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Thursday after data showed the world's largest economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the fourth quarter, suggesting the Federal Reserve would be in no rush to cut interest rates. the Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance GDP estimate showed gross domestic product in the last quarter increased at a 3.3% annualized rate, compared with the consensus forecast of 2% growth rate.The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's value versus six major currencies, was last up 0.2% at 103.53 . So far this year, the dollar has gained about 2%. The dollar was up 0.2% versus the yen at 147.705.Strong resistance can be seen at 147.89(38.2% fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.42( Jan 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.00(Psychological level)a break below could take the pair towards 145.56(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday as technology shares and Nokia advanced on a quarterly profit beat, while investors took the European Central Bank's latest monetary policy meeting and news conference as signalling a dovish shift there.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.11 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes gained on Thursday after data showing strong economic performance in the fourth quarter boosted hopes of a soft landing, while Tesla's warning of a sharp drop in growththis year pulled its shares to an eight-month low.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.64% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.53% percent, Nasdaq settled upby 0.18% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Treasury yields fell on Thursday after a report showed the U.S. economy grew faster-than-expected in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a component of the data revealing the pace of inflation fell below the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which reflects interest rate expectations, falling 3.7 basis points to 4.341%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell 4 basis points to 4.138%.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged higher on Thursday as Treasury yields fell after U.S. GDP data highlighted that pace of inflation slowed, while focus shifted to inflation data for further hints on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut strategy.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,015.56 per ounce by 1:49 p.m. ET (1849 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% higher at $2,017.8.
Oil prices gained about 3% on Thursday to settle at their highest since December after U.S. economic data showed faster-than-expected growth in the last quarter and as tensions in the Red Sea kept disrupting global trade.
Brent crude futures settled up $2.39, or 2.99%, to $82.43 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.27, or 3.02%, to $77.36.
