Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.477% ,3.437% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.687%, 3.699% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.623% ,3.628% previous
• US Jun Manufacturing PMI 51.6 ,51.7 forecast,51.3 previous
• US May Construction Spending (MoM) -0.1% ,0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
• US Jun ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 49.3, 45.4 previous
• US Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.5 ,49.2 forecast,48.7 previous
• US Jun ISM Manufacturing Prices 52.1 ,55.8 forecast,57.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 01:30 Australia May Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Evengts And Other Releases(GMT)
• 01:30 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro initially gained on Monday as investors digested French first round of parliamentary elections. Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party won the first round of France's parliamentary elections on Sunday by a large margin, exit polls showed, although analysts noted it won a smaller share of the vote than some polls had initially projected, triggering a rally in stocks and bonds.The euro was last 0.4% higher at $1.0759, around a two-week high. It has lost around 1.2% since the French far right triumphed in European parliamentary elections in early June, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap election in France. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0773(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0818(June 13th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0716(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0687(June 13th high ).
GBP/USD: Sterling reversed early ground on Monday investors remained cautious ahead of Britain's July 4 election. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Monday urged voters on the political right to stick with his Conservatives at this week’s election, saying a huge win for Labour would be bad for the country and its democracy.The Conservatives look set to be kicked out of office after 14 turbulent years, marked by Britain's vote to leave the European Union in 2016 and the cost of living crisis that followed the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Opinion polls have consistently given Keir Starmer's centre-left Labour Party an around 20-point lead, with support for Reform potentially splitting the centre-right vote and the centrist Liberal Democrats further draining Conservative support. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2688(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2749(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2643(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2599(61.8% fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as investors awaited for U.S. labor market data due later this week for clues about the interest rate outlook.U.S. manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in June and a measure of prices paid by factories for inputs dropped to a six-month low amid weak demand for goods, indicating that inflation could continue to subside.This week, the focus will be on remarks from U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, followed by minutes from the central bank's latest policy meeting on Wednesday and U.S. non-farm payrolls data due on Friday . The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at C$1.3703 to the greenback, or 72.98 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3664 to 1.3708.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3745 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3777 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3727 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3700(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Monday as investors were on alert for intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up Japanese yen. The yen has fallen more than 12% this year, with its latest decline to the weaker side of 160 per dollar keeping investors on heightened alert for intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the currency. Data showing weaker-than-expected economic growth added to the uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's next move in interest rates.The BoJ meets in late July and has hinted that it could raise borrowing costs, potentially helping close the yawning gap between Japanese and U.S. rates that has hammered the yen this year by causing investors to flock to the higher returns on U.S. bonds.Separate data on Monday showed the business mood in Japan's service-sector soured in June, offsetting a big lift in factory confidence. Strong resistance can be seen at 161.60(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 161.95(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.92 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 158.49(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks gained on Monday, with French shares leading the charge after the far-right National Rally (RN) party scored historic gains in the first round of parliamentary elections, but by a smaller margin than what some opinion polls had suggested.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.47 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.09 percent.
Megacap growth stocks led by Apple and Tesla lifted the tech-heavy Nasdaq to a higher close on Monday, while the Dow and the S&P 500 also eked out slight gains in light pre-holiday trading..
Dow Jones closed up by 0.13 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.27 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.81 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Monday, buoyed by some short covering from investors with focus turning to U.S. jobs data due later this week that could offer more cues around interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,329.79 per ounce as of 1:52 p.m. ET (1752 GMT). Prices registered a more than 4% gain in the second quarter.U.S. gold futures settled mostly unchanged at $2,338.9.
Oil prices rose 2% to a two-month high on hopes of rising demand during the Northern Hemisphere's summer driving season and worries that conflict in the Middle East could spread and reduce global oil supplies.
Brent futures rose 1.9% to settle at $86.60 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 2.3% to settle at $83.38. That was the highest close for Brent since April 30 for a third day in a row and the highest for WTI since April 26.
