Market Roundup
• Yen intervention possible in holiday-thinned week
•UK budget, RBNZ in focus
•Fed official hints at possible December rate cut
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 07:30 Swiss Employment Level (Q3) 5.532M previous
•09:00 German Business Expectations (Nov) 91.6 previous
•09:00 German Current Assessment (Nov) 85.3 previous
•09:00 German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov) 88.6forecast, 88.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No data ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Monday as investors waited for clearer signals on the U.S. interest-rate outlook. Expectations for rate cuts jumped to 74% from 40% on Friday after dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams. However, other Fed officials struck a more cautious tone, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan arguing that rates should remain on hold “for a time,” while the Chicago and Cleveland Fed presidents warned that cutting too soon could pose significant risks to the economy.The euro zone’s data calendar is relatively light, with economic sentiment and consumer-confidence surveys due. Germany, however, faces a busy week with the Ifo business survey, final Q3 GDP, retail sales, and CPI all scheduled for release. The European Central Bank will publish the minutes of its October policy meeting on Thursday, and ECB President Christine Lagarde is also set to speak. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was little changed on Monday as traders awaited details from the forthcoming UK budget. Wednesday’s Autumn Budget will be closely watched, with investors assessing whether Finance Minister Rachel Reeves can balance fiscal discipline with measures to support economic growth. Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene is also scheduled to speak on Thursday.Britain’s economy has remained stuck in a prolonged period of sluggish growth since the 2007–08 financial crisis a trend Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer have pledged to reverse after Labour returned to power in 2024. However, to keep borrowing on target and avoid unsettling bond markets, Reeves is expected to raise taxes by tens of billions of pounds for the second time since the election, even as she seeks to increase welfare spending. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3125(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3139(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2974(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar inched higher on Monday as traders looked ahead to this week’s key CPI inflation release. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish its new, fully updated monthly CPI series on Wednesday, replacing the previous partial dataset. A Reuters poll suggests weighted annual CPI will remain sticky at 3.6%. Investors are closely watching housing and market-services prices for clearer signals on underlying inflation trends. Meanwhile, interest-rate swaps show limited expectations for an RBA cut before May next year with odds around 50% after last quarter’s inflation spike dampened hopes for further policy easing. The Aussie was last trading up at 0.14% at $0.6464. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained modestly on Monday as upside was capped as mounting speculation over possible yen intervention kept investors cautious. The yen has been weighed down by Japan’s ultra-low interest rates and loose fiscal stance, but it rebounded from 10-month lows late last week after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama intensified verbal warnings of potential official action. The currency has fallen roughly 6% since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office, pressured by concerns over the heavy borrowing needed to finance her stimulus plans.Market participants widely expect Japanese authorities to step in near the 160 level or if the yen experiences sharp, disorderly swings. Looking ahead, Japan will release Tokyo core CPI, unemployment figures, industrial production, and retail sales on Friday, while Bank of Japan Board Member Asahi Noguchi is scheduled to speak on Thursday.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.66(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.85 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.34 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian stocks climbed on Monday on growing hopes for a U.S. rate cut in December, though gains were limited by mixed signals from policymakers and worries that the AI-driven equity rally may be overextended.
DJ Shanghai jumped 0.64% and South Korea's Kospi dipped 0.19%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.97 %.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dropped for a third consecutive session on Monday, as the dollar firmed near six-month highs, while investors awaited more clarity on the U.S. interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,045.58 per ounce, as of 0536 GMT.U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.9% to $4,042.50 per ounce.
Crude paused on Monday following a roughly 3% slide last week, with traders balancing hopes for a U.S. rate cut against speculation that a Russia-Ukraine agreement could ease sanctions and increase Russian exports.
Brent crude futures were unchanged at $62.56 per barrel by 0458 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate was down 2 cents, or 0.03%, at $58.04 a barrel. Both benchmarks hit their lowest settlements since October 21.
