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Market Roundup
• Australia NAB Business Confidence (Sep) -13, -9 previous
•Australia NAB Business Survey (Sep) -1, -1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 06:00 German CPI (Sep) (MoM) 0.6% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 06:00 German CPI (Sep) (YoY) 3.3% forecast, 2.9% previous
• 06:00 German HICP (Sep) (MoM) 0.6% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 06:00 German HICP (Sep) (YoY) 3.3% forecast, 2.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 07:15 EU ECB's Elderson Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Tuesday as dollar as oil prices eased, accompanied by a slide in global stocks.Brent crude futures fell 1.4% to $105.20 as traders weighed the prospect of more diesel supplies from Russia, amid an elusive "energy truce" between Moscow and Kyiv declared by US President Donald Trump.Market attention now turns to Wednesday's US CPI report, which analysts expect to reinforce expectations for further monetary tightening.Traders expect the Federal Reserve to sit on its hands at its next two-day meeting later this month.Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 80.6% probability that the US central bank will remain on hold, down from 82.3% on Friday, the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1126(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1285(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1147(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1056(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as investors assessed the outlook for monetary policy and awaited key economic data from the United States and the United Kingdom for fresh trading cues. Market attention is focused on the UK’s monthly gross domestic product (GDP) report for August, scheduled for release on Thursday. Economists expect the UK economy to contract by 0.1%, following growth of 0.4% in July. Investors will also examine manufacturing and industrial production figures for further evidence of the economy’s underlying momentum. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report is expected to be a major driver of dollar movements ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3222(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3255(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3191(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards1.3175(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dipped on Tuesday as investors assessed the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's September policy meeting, which reinforced the central bank's hawkish stance and highlighted persistent inflation risks.Minutes released on Tuesday revealed unanimous support among Monetary Policy Board members for a quarter-percentage-point rate hike to 4.60% at the September 28-29 policy meeting.Board members noted that multiple inflationary risks highlighted in August had either emerged or strengthened, even as the economy continued to demonstrate resilience amid slowing demand.Investors are now turning their attention to Australia's September employment report, due on Thursday, which could provide fresh clues about the strength of the labour market and the RBA's future policy direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6984 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7010(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6902 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6859(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Tuesday as market participants continued to monitor the BOJ's stance after its September rate hike and recent signals that further tightening remains possible.The BOJ is set to release fresh quarterly economic growth and inflation projections at its October 29-30 policy meeting, with markets looking for clues on when the next rate increase could come. Many analysts anticipate a further hike by year-end.Japan’s wholesale prices increased 6.8% year-on-year in September, data released Tuesday showed, easing from the previous month but underscoring mounting inflationary pressures that sustain expectations of a near-term BOJ rate hike. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the timing and pace of future rate hikes would depend on how far rising wholesale prices feed through to consumer inflation and the resulting impact on consumption. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.73(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.58(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.62(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.32(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian equity markets slumped on Tuesday amid growing doubts about the durability of gains in AI-related stocks and rising competitive pressures, as escalating Middle East tensions added to investor caution ahead of major US corporate earnings.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 1.84% , Hang Seng was down at 0.03%, South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 5.06%
Commodities Recap
Gold ticked higher on Tuesday as falling oil prices offered support, while traders turned their attention to key US inflation data that could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions.
Spot gold was up 0.4% to $4,185.69 per ounce by 0356 GMT after hitting a one-week peak on Monday.US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.5% at $4,209.90.
Oil prices declined on Tuesday, putting crude on course for its first drop in nearly a week as traders assessed supply risks from attacks on Saudi Arabia and the possibility of increased diesel supplies from Russia.
Brent crude futures fell $1.30, or 1.2%, to $105.35 a barrel by 0329 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $1.25, or 1.3%, at $92.49 a barrel.
