Asia Roundup: Dollar dips ahead this week’s Fed meeting, Gold rises, Oil hovers near two-week highs-December 8th,2025

Market Roundup

• Japan Overall Wage Income of Employees (Oct): 2.6%, 2.2% forecast, 2.1% previous.

• Japan Overtime Pay YoY (Oct): 1.50%, 1.00% previous.

• Japan Adjusted Current Account (Oct): 2.48T, 3.09T forecast, 4.35T previous.

• Japan Bank Lending YoY (Nov): 4.2%, 4.0% forecast, 4.1% previous.

• Japan Current Account n.s.a. (Oct): 2.834T, 3.109T forecast, 4.483T previous.

• Japan GDP QoQ (Q3): -0.6%, -0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous.

• Japan GDP Annualized QoQ (Q3): -2.3%, -2.0% forecast, 2.2% previous.

• Japan GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ (Q3): -0.2%, 1.0% forecast, 0.6% previous.

• Japan GDP External Demand QoQ (Q3): -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous.

• Japan GDP Price Index YoY (Q3): 3.4%, 2.8% forecast, 3.0% previous.

• Japan GDP Private Consumption QoQ (Q3): 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous.

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)  

• 07:00 German Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) 0.2% forecast, 1.3% previous.            

• 07:00 German Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) -0.98% previous.          

•07:00  Finnish Trade Balance (Oct) -0.43B previous.       

•07:45   French Reserve Assets Total (Nov) 350,037.0M previous.            

•EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Dec) -6.2 forecast, -7.4               previous.            

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)  

•No events Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Monday as the U.S. dollar weakened ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where an interest rate cut is widely priced in, though divisions within the committee add an element of uncertainty.U.S. consumer spending rose at a moderate pace in September after three consecutive months of strong gains, signalling a loss of economic momentum toward the end of the third quarter, as a softer labour market and rising living costs weighed on demand. The data followed private payrolls figures showing the sharpest decline in more than two and a half years last month.Dovish remarks from several Federal Reserve officials have further reinforced expectations of monetary easing. CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that markets are pricing in about an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1674(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1692(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1595(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1570(38.2%fib).

GBP/USD:    Sterling firmed on Monday as traders became increasingly confident that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver an interest rate cut at its policy meeting this week.The upcoming Fed meeting is shaping up to be one of the most contentious in years, with investors closely watching how deeply divided policymakers are over the anticipated rate cut and what Chair Jerome Powell signals about the outlook for policy. Five of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee have expressed opposition or skepticism toward further easing, while three members of the Washington-based Board of Governors support a rate cut.The FOMC has not seen three or more dissents at a single meeting since 2019, an outcome that has occurred only nine times since 1990. Beyond the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, central bank meetings are also scheduled this week in Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Switzerland, though policy changes are not expected outside the United States.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3364(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3427(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3295(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3182(SMA 20).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday ahead of the central bank’s rate decision.The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, and while a rate hold is widely expected, investors will be closely watching the central bank’s messaging for clues on the policy path ahead. Just a few weeks ago, markets were pricing in at least one rate cut early next year, but recent data showing resilient domestic demand and steady job growth have weakened the case for additional stimulus. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said in her testimony before a parliamentary committee last week that further policy adjustments would be required if inflation remains persistent. As a result, traders are not expecting a particularly “rosy” tone from the central bank. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6652(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6706(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6606(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6559(61.8%fib)

USD/JPY: The dollar inched lower against the yen on Monday as the Japanese currency firmed after wage growth data reinforced expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike next week. Government figures showed that Japan’s real wages declined for a tenth straight month in October, with gains in nominal pay failing to keep pace with persistent consumer inflation.Wage trends remain a key focus for BOJ policymakers ahead of the December 18–19 meeting, when interest rate decisions will be made. Adding to the mixed economic picture, Japan’s gross domestic product contracted at an annualised 2.3%, steeper than the previously reported 1.8%, marking the fastest pace of contraction since the third quarter of 2023, the Cabinet Office said on Monday.The BOJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate at the December 18–19 meeting, with the government signalling it is prepared to accept the decision.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.17(Dec 1st high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.40 (23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at  155.34 (38.2%fib)  a break below could take the pair towards 153.35 (50%fib)

Equities Recap

 Asian markets struggled for direction on Monday as traders staked their bets on an imminent rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Japan’s, Nikkei 225    was down   0.14%, South Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.04%,Hang Seng was up  1.06%

Commodities Recap

Oil prices hovered at two-week highs on Monday as investors expect a likely U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week to lift economic growth and energy demand, while monitoring geopolitical risk that threatens Russian and Venezuelan supply.

Brent crude futures   rose 9 cents, or 0.14%, to $63.84 a barrel by 0321 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude   was at $60.16, up 8 cents, or 0.13%.

Gold nudged higher on Monday, supported by a softer dollar as traders grew more confident the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver an interest-rate cut at its policy meeting this week.

Spot gold   rose 0.3% to $4,207.99 per ounce as of 0530 GMT. U.S. gold futures  for December delivery eased 0.1% to$4,237.0 per ounce.