Market Roundup
• Australia Construction Work Done (Q4 QoQ): -0.1%, 1.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•Australia CPI (Jan YoY): 3.8%, 3.7% forecast, 3.8% previous.
•Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (Jan YoY): 3.4%, 3.3% forecast, 3.4% previous.
•Australia Weighted Mean CPI (Jan YoY): 3.80%, 3.70% forecast, 3.80% previous.
•Australia Weighted Mean CPI (Jan YoY): 3.6%, 3.2% previous.
•Australia CPI Index Number (Jan): 101.33, 100.30 previous.
•Japan BoJ Core CPI (YoY): 1.7%, 1.8% forecast, 1.9% previous.
•German GDP (Q4 QoQ): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•German GDP (Q4 YoY): 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•GfK German Consumer Climate (Mar): -24.7, -23.0 forecast, -24.2 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 10:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Jan): 1.7% forecast, 1.9% previous
• 10:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Jan): 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
• 10:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Jan): -0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 10:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Jan): 2.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• 10:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jan): 2.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 10:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jan): 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
• 10:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Jan): 0.2% previous
• 10:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jan): 1.9% previous
• 10:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Jan): 100.08 forecast, 129.54 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Wednesday as uncertainty over U.S. tariffs pressured the dollar.The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday struck down Trump's emergency tariffs, prompting the president to pledge a new 15% levy on U.S. imports from all countries. The United States began collecting a temporary 10% global import tariff on Tuesday, but Washington was working to raise it to 15%, a White House official said, sowing confusion over Trump's tariff policies after the Supreme Court's defeat last week.Meanwhile, two U.S. Federal Reserve officials signaled no near-term appetite to change the setting of central bank interest rate policy. Markets currently expect three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound firmed on Wednesday as dollar weakened as investors grappled with ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy. Concerns that fresh trade measures could weigh on global growth have kept the greenback under pressure.Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union address to a joint session of United States Congress. While no major new policy measures were announced .Investors remain cautious, wary that any unexpected policy signals could inject fresh volatility into currency markets.Sterling found additional support after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey struck a cautious tone on rate cuts, reinforcing the view that policy easing may not be imminent. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3537(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3591(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3487 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3368(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Wednesday as hotter-than-expected inflation data fueled expectations of additional interest rate hikes this year.January consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month, keeping annual inflation at 3.8%, partly driven by higher housing and healthcare costs.The key trimmed mean core inflation gauge rose 0.3% in the month, lifting the annual rate to 3.4% — above forecasts and the highest since the third quarter of 2024.That marked a seventh consecutive month above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2%–3% target range, heightening the risk of a strong inflation outcome for the March quarter overall.RBA Governor Michele Bullock will have a chance to offer her own reaction to the January CPI when appearing at a Melbourne University event later on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed on Wednesday as yen dipped after a report said that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had told the central bank chief she had reservations about future rate hikes. The report signals potential friction over monetary policy that could complicate the BOJ's plan to steadily raise rates and rekindle currency market concerns that Takaichi wants to run the economy hot with low interest rates and high government spending.The yen has been sliding for years thanks to Japan's low interest rates and has been under pressure since Takaichi came to power in October on concerns that she would further strain a stretched national budget.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.10(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.23(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.98 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.82 (Feb 18th low).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks steadied on Wednesday as tech stocks across the region soared with investors doubling down on what they see as the safest bet on artificial intelligence (AI), while the yen remained in focus..
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 2.22% , Hang Seng was down at 0.68 %, China A50 was up at 0.51%
Commodities Recap
Gold rose 1% in Asian trade as investors sought safe-haven assets amid renewed uncertainty over U.S. tariffs following the Supreme Court’s ruling against several of President Trump’s measures.
Spot gold was at $5,198 per ounce, as of 0534 GMT. Bullion ended the previous session down more than 1%, as investors locked in profits after gold hit a three-week high earlier in the day.
U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 0.8% at $5,217.30.
Oil prices hovered near seven-month highs on Wednesday as concerns over a potential U.S.-Iran military conflict, which could disrupt supply, kept investors cautious ahead of talks scheduled for Thursday.
Brent futures were up 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $71.20 per barrel at 0400 GMT. WTI futures rose 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $66.01.
