Market Roundup
• Australia GDP (YoY) (Q4): 2.6%, 2.2% forecast, 2.1% previous
• Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.8%, 0.7% forecast, 0.5% previous
• Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Feb): 53.8, 53.8 forecast, 53.7 previous
• Australia GDP Final Consumption (Q4): 0.5%, 0.7% previous
• Australia GDP Chain Price Index (Q4): 1.4%, 0.8% previous
• Australia GDP Capital Expenditure (Q4): 0.7%, 3.2% previous
• China Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 49.0, 49.1 forecast, 49.3 previous
• China Composite PMI (Feb): 49.5, — forecast, 49.8 previous
• China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 49.5, 49.8 forecast, 49.4 previous
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 52.1, 50.1 forecast, 50.3 previous
• China Caixin Services PMI (Feb): 56.7, 52.3 forecast, 52.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:00 HCOB Germany Services PMI (Feb): 53.4 forecast, 53.4 previous
• 09:00 HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Feb): 53.1 forecast, 53.1 previous
• 09:00 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Feb): 51.8 forecast, 51.8 previous
• 09:00 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Feb): 51.9 forecast, 51.9 previous
• 09:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Jan): 5.6% forecast, 5.6% previous
• 09:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb): 53.9 forecast, 53.9 previous
• 09:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Feb): 53.9 forecast, 53.9 previous
• 10:00 EU Unemployment Rate (Jan): 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
• 10:00 EU PPI (YoY) (Jan): -2.7% forecast, -2.1% previous
• 10:00 EU PPI (MoM) (Jan): 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Wednesday as an escalating Middle East conflict sent oil prices sharply higher and revived inflation worries.Israeli and U.S. forces pounded targets across Iran, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes around the Gulf as the conflict spread to Lebanon, rattled global markets and sent oil prices sharply higher.The growing risks of a drawn-out war in the Middle East have particular significance for net oil importing countries such as South Korea, which relies almost totally on imports for its energy. The euro traded down 0.3% at $1.1581, extending losses into a third day after earlier hitting its weakest since late November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1697(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1782(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1529(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1499(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound tumbled to its lowest in three months on Wednesday as the growing conflict in the Middle East sparked fears of a sustained rise in energy prices.Financial markets resumed their selloff on Wednesday as growing fears of a surge in inflation rippled across stocks and bonds after Israeli and U.S. forces pounded targets across Iran, prompting a rush for cash among investors.Global oil and gas prices have jumped as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupts energy exports from the Middle East, with Tehran's attacks on ships and energy facilities closing navigation in the Gulf and forcing production stoppages from Qatar to Iraq. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3403(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3459(Jan 2nd low).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3248(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3183(Dec 2nd low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar as the fallout from war in the Middle East offset better-than-expected domestic GDP figures.Markets fell again on Wednesday as inflation fears rose after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, driving investors toward safe heaven US dollar .Australia’s economy grew at its fastest annual pace in nearly three years in the December quarter, reigniting inflation concerns and raising expectations for higher interest rates to control demand. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.8% in the fourth quarter, above an upwardly revised 0.5% the previous quarter. Analysts this week had upgraded their forecasts to around 1.0%.Annual growth accelerated to 2.6%, the fastest pace since early 2023 when post-pandemic stimulus was still being felt. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7030(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased slightly on Wednesday as investors digested comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama and BOJ Governor Ueda . Finance Minister Katayama reiterated that authorities are closely watching foreign exchange market movements and remain prepared to take appropriate steps if excessive volatility is observed.Traders had been waiting for verbal intervention signals, which often trigger short-term yen buying flows. Such expectation helped push the yen stronger during Asian trading session.Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed that the central bank remains committed to gradual monetary tightening and may continue hiking rates, particularly while monitoring geopolitical risks from Middle East conflicts that could influence inflation dynamics. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell sharply on Wednesday as investors sold chipmakers amid fears that escalating Middle East tensions could trigger an oil shock, stoke inflation, and delay interest rate cuts.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 3.70% , South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 12.06 %, China A50 was downat 1.60%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed more than 1% on Wednesday, bouncing back from a one-week low as escalating Middle East tensions rattled global markets and boosted safe-haven demand.
Spot gold gained 1.5% to $5,164.42 per ounce by 0701 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery added 1% to $5,174.30.
Oil rose 3% as the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran disrupted Middle East supplies, though gains slowed after President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy could escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent rose $2.67, or 3.3%, to $84.07 a barrel by 0659 GMT, after closing on Tuesday at its highest since January 2025.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.24, or 3%, to $76.8, after settling at its highest since June. Both benchmarks have risen about 5% or more in the past two sessions.
