Market Roundup
• Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (Q4 QoQ): 5.8%, 1.8% forecast, 1.5% previous.
•Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (Q4 QoQ): 5.8%, 1.8% forecast, 1.5% previous.
•Australia Company Profits Pre-Tax (Q4 QoQ): 1.6%, 0.4% previous.
•Australia Business Inventories (Q4 MoM): -0.1%, -0.8% previous.
•Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (Feb MoM): 3.2%, 5.2% previous.
•Germany Retail Sales (Jan MoM): -0.9%, 0.0% forecast, 1.2% previous.
•UK Nationwide HPI (Feb MoM): 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•UK Nationwide HPI (Feb YoY): 1.0%, 0.7% forecast, 1.0% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:45 Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 49.1 forecast, 48.1 previous.
• 08:50 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 49.9 forecast, 51.2 previous.
• 08:55 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 50.7 forecast, 49.1 previous.
•09:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 50.8 forecast, 49.5 previous.
•09:00 Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 54.2 previous.
•09:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 52.0 forecast, 52.0 previous.
•09:30 UK M4 Money Supply (Jan MoM): 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Monday after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran raised the risk of a protracted conflict. The military action resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader and sparked a wave of retaliation across the region from the country, raising the risk of protracted conflict in the Middle East.U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion that the conflict could go on for the next four weeks has added to the uncertainty, deepening fears that the violence may spread to other parts of the Middle East. Investors also have to weather a squall of U.S. economic data this week, including the ISM survey of manufacturing, retail sales and the always vital payrolls report. Any weakness could shake confidence in the economy after a disappointing fourth quarter, but would also likely narrow the odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Monday as investors sought safety in dollar after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and raising the risk of protracted conflict in the Middle East.Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran showed no sign of lessening, while Iran responded with missile barrages across the region, risking dragging its neighbours into the conflict.All eyes were on the Strait of Hormuz where around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade flows and 20% of its liquefied natural gas. While the vital waterway has not yet been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3537(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3591(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3487 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3368(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar initially dipped on Monday but recovered ground as investors reacted to Iran war. Over the weekend, the United States and Israel launched major military strikes on Iran, killing its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an attack that hit key leadership and military targets.Despite markets showing only a cautious reaction so far, the risk of a prolonged war in the Middle East remains high, with President Donald Trump saying military operations in Iran could continue until all U.S. objectives are achieved.Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to deliver a speech on Tuesday morning, where she’s likely to be asked about the latest conflict in Iran and what it could mean for monetary policy especially after the RBA raised interest rates last month.On the data front, GDP report is due on Wednesday where forecasts are centred on a 0.6% gain, picking up from 0.4% the prior quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7139(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7162(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7037(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Monday as military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran sent investors fleeing to the relative safety of the yen. The weekend U.S.-Iran crisis could complicate the BOJ's rate-hike decision by weighing on growth and pushing up prices through a spike in crude oil prices.The BOJ ended a decade-long, massive stimulus in 2024 and raised rates in several steps including in December, on the view Japan was making steady progress in durably achieving its 2% inflation target. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said the central bank is expected to keep raising interest rates but gave no hints on the timing of the next hike, as the Middle East conflict heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.48(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.84(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.94 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 154.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell on Monday as investors reacted to weekend strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks, which pushed oil prices higher and drove demand for haven assets like the U.S. dollar, gold and government bonds.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 1.35% , South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 1.00 %, China A50 was up at 0.84%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices surged on Monday and shares slid as military conflict in the Middle East looked set to last weeks, threatening to upend a global economic recovery and perhaps reignite inflation.
Brent jumped 6.4% to $77.57 a barrel, though it had briefly topped $82.00 at one stage, while U.S. crude climbed 6.2% to $71.17 per barrel.
Gold prices climbed on Monday after the U.S. and Israel carried out major strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a development that intensified geopolitical tensions and heightened global economic uncertainty, boosting demand for the safe-haven metal.
Spot gold was up 1.88% at $5,376.44 an ounce, as of 0632 GMT, after hitting its highest point in more than four weeks. Earlier in the session, bullion prices had climbed as much as 2%.
