Market Roundup
• Japan 5-Year JGB Auction 1.640%, 1.639% previous
• Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Dec) 8.40,-2.50 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:30 Germany CPI (YoY) (Jan): 2.1% forecast, 1.8% previous.
•07:30 UK Employment Change 3M/3M (Dec): 82K previous.
•07:30 UK Unemployment Rate (Dec): 5.2% forecast, 5.1% previous.
•07:30 UK Average Earnings +Bonus (Dec): 4.6% forecast, 4.7% previous.
•07:30 UK Claimant Count Change (Jan): 22.8K forecast, 17.9K previous.
•07:30 Germany HICP (MoM) (Jan): -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•07:30 Germany HICP (YoY) (Jan): 2.1% forecast, 2.0% previous.
•07:30 UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Dec): 4.2%forecast, 4.5% previous.
•10:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) 45.7 forecast, 40.8 previous.
•10:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Feb)-65.7 forecast, -72.7 previous.
•10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Feb) 65.8 forecast, 59.6 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
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Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased slightly on Tuesday as markets awaited signals the potential timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Trading was thin with many markets in Asia closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and following the President's Day holiday in the U.S. Key economic events lie later in the week, with minutes from the Fed's last meeting and advance figures on U.S. gross domestic product.The Fed's Open Market Committee issues minutes from its January meeting on Wednesday. Other key data points this week include inflation readings for Britain, Canada and Japan, as well as preliminary readings of global business activity on Friday.The euro traded down 0.01% at $1.1863. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Tuesday investors awaited the release of the UK monthly jobs report . The upcoming release by the Office for National Statistics is projected to highlight softer labour conditions. Claimant numbers are forecast higher at 22.8K, the Unemployment Rate stable at 5.1%, and both regular and total earnings growth slowing during the period. The key labour data will be followed by UK inflation figures on Wednesday, which could shape expectations for the Bank of England policy outlook amid bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut in March. The outcome is likely to have a significant impact on the British Pound . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Tuesday after the release of Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from its February meeting. Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest board meeting showed policymakers believed risks to inflation and employment had shifted significantly, strengthening the case for a rate hike.Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed policymakers saw a material shift in inflation risks, prompting a 25-basis-point rate hike to 3.85%.Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed policymakers saw risks to both inflation and growth and would rely on incoming data to guide policy decisions.The Reserve Bank of Australia board unanimously raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, reversing one of the three cuts made in 2025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased on Tuesday as the yen trimmed earlier losses, after weak Japanese data had sparked expectations of additional government stimulus.The pair had rallied from 152.57 to 153.62 the previous day following softer-than-expected GDP figures, which pressured the yen and supported dollar demand.Beyond the weak GDP data, there are no major drivers currently weighing on the yen. Markets also showed little reaction to the recent meeting between Kazuo Ueda and Sanae Takaichi, as no meaningful policy signals emerged.Trading in Asia is likely to stay subdued due to Lunar New Year holidays, with several key financial centers closed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.03(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.96(SMA 20) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.78 (61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.12 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian markets were cautious on Tuesday amid holiday-thinned trading, while oil prices were mixed ahead of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Geneva later in the day.
Hang Sang was up 0.52%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.50% , S&P/ASX 200 was up at 0.24%
Commodities Recap
Gold extended losses on Tuesday, weighed by easing tensions in Iran and Russia and a stronger dollar, as investors awaited minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s January meeting later this week.
Spot gold dropped 0.8% to $4,953.90 per ounce by 0345 GMT, after losing 1% earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures for April delivery lost 1.5% to $4,972.90 per ounce.
Oil prices were steady on Tuesday as investors weighed supply risks after Iran held naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz ahead of nuclear talks with the United States later in the day.
Brent crude futures were 0.2% lower at $68.59 a barrel by 0106 GMT, following a 1.3% gain on Monday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 84 cents, or 1.34%, to $63.73 a barrel, reflecting gains from Monday as there was no settlement due to the U.S. Presidents Day holiday.
