Market Roundup
• China GDP (YoY) (Q2) 4.3%, 4.5% forecast, 5.0% previous
• China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jun) -5.7%, -5.0% forecast, -4.1% previous
•Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q2) 4.7%, 4.5% forecast, 5.0% previous
• China GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 1.3% previous
• China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun) 5.3%, 4.7% forecast, 4.5% previous
•Chinese Unemployment Rate (Jun) 5.0%, 5.1% forecast, 5.1% previous
•Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Jun) 5.4%, 5.4% previous
•Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Jun) 1.33%, 1.41% previous
•Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) 1.0%, -0.1% forecast, -0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:00 Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.2% forecast, 3.2% previous
•08:00 Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jun) 3.6% forecast, 3.6% previous
•08:00 Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.9% forecast, 3.0% previous
•08:00 Spanish HICP (MoM) (Jun) 0.6% forecast, 0.1% previous
•08:00 Spanish CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.6% forecast, 0.1% previous
•10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (May) 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (May) -0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data dampened expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, though elevated oil prices continued to pose upside inflation risks.U.S. consumer inflation slowed to 3.5% year-on-year in June, while the headline Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% from the previous month, marking its first monthly decline since April 2020 as energy prices eased. Following the data, traders sharply reduced expectations of a July Fed rate hike, with CME Fed funds futures implying just a 16% probability, roughly half the odds seen before the inflation reports. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1475(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1495(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1368(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1291(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as softer-than-expected U.S. inflation reduced expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, weighing on the greenback. The cooler inflation data lowered the probability of a July Fed hike, sending the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields lower, while gains in technology stocks led by Nvidia and Micron Technology improved overall market risk sentiment.However, geopolitical tensions continued to support safe-haven demand. Oil prices climbed to one-month highs after U.S. President Donald Trump reimposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports, while the U.S. military launched fresh strikes targeting Iranian capabilities linked to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The renewed conflict has kept inflation concerns alive despite the softer U.S. CPI data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3444(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Wednesday as U.S. dollar retreated following softer-than-expected U.S. June inflation data that eased expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes. Top Fed officials welcomed softer June inflation but said more evidence is needed to confirm inflation is easing sustainably.Improved risk appetite, driven by strong U.S. bank earnings and a rebound in chip stocks, also underpinned the Australian dollar.Meanwhile, expectations for further policy tightening remained limited despite the Reserve Bank's three rate hikes since February..Markets currently price a 20% chance of an August rate hike and about a 60% probability by December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6875(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6811(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the yen on Wednesday as the yen strengthened after softer U.S. CPI data eased Fed rate hike expectations, weighing on the dollar. U.S. annual inflation slowed to 3.5% in June, while the CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month, the first decline since April 2020, driven by lower energy prices.Traders now expect that the Fed will skip a July rate hike, with the odds of one halved to 16% after the inflation reports based on Fed funds futures prices at the CME Group.Despite modest gains, the yen remained near 40-year lows as Tokyo refrained from announcing concrete measures to support the currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rallied on Wednesday after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes, while oil prices paused after the U.S. dropped plans to impose shipping fees through the Strait of Hormuz.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 1.49% , KOSPI was up at 6.24 %, China A50 was up at 0.0%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Wednesday after surging more than 2% in the previous session, as higher oil prices stoked inflation concerns and uncertainty over the U.S. interest-rate outlook, weighing on non-yielding bullion.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $4,035.67 per ounce, as of 0300 GMT. U.S. gold futures for August delivery eased 0.7% to $4,042.20.
Oil prices rose in volatile trade on Wednesday as fresh U.S. strikes on Tehran and the reinstated U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz fueled supply concerns.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August delivery rose 1.01% to $80.14 per barrel. September Futures for international benchmark Brent were up 1.23% at $85.77.
