Market Roundup
• Australia Unemployment Rate (Jan): 4.1%, 4.2% forecast, 4.1% previous
•Australia Full Employment Change (Jan): 50.5K, 56.9K previous.
•Australia Employment Change (Jan): 17.8K, 20.0K forecast, 68.5K previous.
•Australia Reserve Assets Total (Jan): 112.5B, 113.9B previous.
•Australia Participation Rate (Jan): 66.7%, 66.8% forecast, 68.5% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:00 EU Current Account (Dec): 9.8B forecast, 8.6B previous
• 09:00 EU Current Account n.s.a. (Dec): 12.6B previous
• 09:00 Spanish Trade Balance (Dec): -5.68B previous
• 09:00 Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction: 3.223% previous
•09:00 Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction: 2.341% previous
•09:00 Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction: 2.512% previous
•11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Feb)-28 forecast,-30 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 11:30 EU ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as a mildly hawkish interpretation of the U.S. Federal Reserve minutes. Investors assessed minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which indicated policymakers were in no rush to cut interest rates, with several members open to further hikes if inflation remains persistent. Investors are now focused on the weekly jobless claims due later today and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric.Markets currently expect the first interest rate cut this year to be in June, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1859(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1775(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1730(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Thursday as the dollar strengthened on solid US economic data and surprise hawkish signals from the Fed.The Fed minutes indicated that policymakers were split on the future path of U.S. interest rates, suggesting the next chair, set to take office in May, may face challenges in advancing rate cuts.The minutes noted that several policymakers expect productivity improvements to help ease inflation. However, “most participants” warned that progress could be gradual and uneven, with some even signaling that rate hikes may be considered if inflation remains above target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3592(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3483 (61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3464(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday release of Australia’s latest wage inflation data. Australian wages rose moderately in Q4, with private sector growth improving slightly, while annual wage growth remained unchanged for over a year. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the wage price index rose 0.8% in the December quarter, matching the previous quarter and forecasts.Annual wage growth edged up to 3.4% from 3.3% and has stayed within a 3.2%–3.6% range for six straight quarters.Looking ahead, markets are awaiting several key U.S. economic releases, including durable goods orders, industrial production data, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7138(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7152(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7032(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7000(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained some ground on Thursday as dollar firmed after minutes from the Federal Reserve showed policymakers did not seem to be in a rush to cut interest rates.The yen also took a knock after Trump administration announced projects valued at $36 billion as the first investments under Japan's promised $550 billion U.S. investment pledge.It was down 1% overnight and steady at 154.78 to the dollar on Thursday, a retreat from the 152 level that it had tested last week in the wake of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide electoral victory.The yen has been sliding for years on a combination of low local interest rates and concern about Japan's budget outlook, but has lately found support on hopes for economic growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.29(Daily hgh) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.96(SMA 20) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.78 (61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.12 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks advanced on Thursday, buoyed by strong performances from major technology companies on Wall Street.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.71% , Hang Sang was up at 0.52%, South Korea’s KOSPIwas up by 3.10%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were flat in thin trading on Thursday after rising more than 2% a day earlier, as investors waited for key U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.
Spot gold was steady at $4,980.60 per ounce by 0454 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 0.2% at $4,999.70.
Oil prices edged higher in Asian trading on Thursday as the U.S. and Iran sought to ease tensions in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme, even as both sides increased military activity in the key oil-producing region.
Brent futures climbed 24 cents, or 0.3% to $70.59 a barrel by 0415 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 28 cents, or 0.4%, to trade at $65.47 a barrel.
