Market Roundup
• China CPI (MoM) (Feb): 1.0%, 0.2% previous.
• China PPI (YoY) (Feb): -0.9%, -1.1% forecast, -1.4% previous.
• China CPI (YoY) (Feb): 1.3%, 0.9% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Jan): 2.1%, 1.1% previous.
• Germany Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan): -11.1%, -4.2% forecast, 6.4% previous.
• Germany Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan): -0.5%, 1.0% forecast, -1.0% previous.
• Germany Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan): -1.09%, 0.44% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 09:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Mar) -3.1 foecast,4.2 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Monday as higher energy costs fuelled inflation concerns and further dimmed the prospects for near-term reductions in interest rats. Crude oil prices surged more than 15% to above $110 per barrel, as the widening U.S.-Israeli war with Iran prompted some major Middle Eastern oil producers to cut supplies amid fears of prolonged disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran on Monday named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father, Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader, signalling that hardliners remain firmly in charge and further escalating tensions in the region. Meanwhile, Weaker-than-expected U.S. labour market data on Friday were largely brushed aside as investors focused instead on the oil shock and fresh political uncertainty in Iran after the naming of a new leader that will likely draw the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1574(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1608(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1509(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1474(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped on Monday as investors rushed into the US dollar amid heightened risk aversion. The danger of energy-driven inflation has led markets to wager the next move in rates from the European Central Bank could be up, possibly as early as June.For the Bank of England, markets have shifted to pricing just a 40% chance of one more easing, compared with two cuts or more before the Middle East conflict started.Nervous investors sought the liquidity of dollars while shunning currencies from countries that are net energy importers, including Japan and much of Europe. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3328(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3489(50%fib)).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3118(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3125(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar traded in a tight range on Monday as the escalating US–Iran conflict escalation 2026 increased global risk aversion and strengthened demand for the US dollar.Oil prices surged sharply as limited storage capacity forced producers to consider output cuts, tightening supply expectations. With no clear end to the tensions in the Middle East and oil tankers still avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, investors are bracing for a prolonged period of elevated energy prices.Geopolitical tensions intensified after Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” while Ali Khamenei’s son was reportedly chosen as a potential successor, signaling a continuation of hardline policies.Growing concerns over a potential global recession and a sharp energy price shock are expected to keep the Australian dollar under pressure in the near term. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7030(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The US dollar strengthened on Monday as surging oil prices, driven by the escalating US–Israel war with Iran 2026, fueled inflation fears and pressured the Japanese yen. Japan is particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on Middle East energy imports, unlike the United States which is less dependent.Markets remain volatile, with analysts warning of possible stagflation risks in Japan, despite relatively strong recent data. Indicators show Japanese wages rose in January, large pay hikes are expected in April, and bank lending continued to grow in February, pointing to underlying economic momentum despite rising risks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Asian markets stayed under pressure Monday, though losses eased later as some bourses recovered part of the sharp early drop triggered by surging oil prices and escalating Middle East tensions.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 5.29% , South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 5.96 %, China A50 was down at 0.66%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Monday, as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the greenback-priced bullion, while higher energy costs fuelled inflation concerns and further dimmed the prospects for near-term reductions in interest rates.
Spot gold shed 1.4% to $5,097.70 per ounce as of 0750 GMT, after falling more than 2% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery lost 1% to $5,106.
Oil prices eased from earlier highs on Monday but remained more than 15% higher, reaching levels last seen in mid-2022, as supply cuts by major producers and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions intensified amid the expanding US–Israel war with Iran.
Brent crude futures were up $15.51, or 16.7%, at $108.20 per barrel at 0642 GMT - on track for the biggest-ever jump in a single day, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $14.23, or 15.7%, at $105.13.
