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Market Roundup
•Japan Services PMI (Aug) 52.5%, 52.3 forecast, 51.2 previous
•Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Aug) 53.50%, 53.40 forecast, 52.70 previous
•New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) -0.4%, -4.0% previous
•Australia Trade Balance (Jul) 1.923B, 1.400B forecast, 2.341B previous
•Australia Exports (MoM) (Jul) -3.3%, 9.1% previous
•Australia Imports (MoM) (Jul) -2.5%, -0.7% previous
•China Caixin Services PMI (Aug) 51.4%, 50.6 forecast, 50.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:45 Italy Services PMI (Aug) 53.6% forecast, 52.5 previous
•07:45 Italy Composite PMI (Aug) 52.5% forecast, 52.5 previous
•07:50 France Services PMI (Aug) 48.4% forecast, 49.6 previous
France Composite PMI (Aug) 48.8% forecast, 49.4 previous
•07:55 Germany Services PMI (Aug) 48.5% forecast, 49.8 previous
•08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Aug) 51.7% forecast, 51.7 previous
•08:00 Eurozone Composite PMI (Aug) 52.1% forecast, 52.0 previous
•08:30 UK Composite PMI (Aug) 52.5% forecast, 52.2 previous
•08:30 UK Services PMI (Aug) 52.8% forecast, 52.1 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors awaited fresh U.S. data and central banker comments for signals that could determine whether the Federal Reserve tightens policy this month.The market's immediate focus is Friday's pivotal U.S. payrolls report after disappointing private labour data for August. Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller is due to speak after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams tempered expectations of a hike this month. Policy meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will also be closely watched as markets gauge how far major central banks are prepared to tighten policy in response to persistent inflation pressures. The euro edged up 0.02% to $1.1589. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1597(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1625(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1502(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as investors watched for new developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Investors remained focused on Iran. Fears of renewed escalation gripped the Middle East after the U.S. and Iran exchanged their biggest barrage since July. The flare-up threatens to deepen a conflict that has dragged on since the U.S. launched strikes on Iran in February.On Wednesday, the U.S. ADP National Employment Report showed private employment rose by 38,000 jobs last month, below the 48,000 increase expected by economists polled by Reuters, after an upwardly revised 46,000 in July. Traders have recently increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. They now assign a roughly two-in-three chance that the Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point rate increase this month.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3552(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3565(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3482(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3435(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar gained ground on Thursday as stronger-than-expected economic data boosted expectations of an imminent RBA rate hike. Australia’s economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, with GDP rising 2.1% year on year, according to data released Wednesday.On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP increased 0.4%, slightly above market expectations of 0.3%, supported by stronger private demand and higher mining exports.Australia’s July goods trade surplus widened to A$1.92 billion, exceeding the A$1.45 billion consensus. However, goods exports fell 3.3% month on month, pointing to weaker external demand despite the larger surplus.Markets are currently pricing in a 61.0% probability of a 25-basis-point RBA rate hike in September. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7179(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7215(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7123(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 07105(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the yen on Thursday as the yen strengthened following hints from Japanese policymakers that interest rates will rise later this month.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said policymakers would consider a rate hike as early as September, with inflation risks a key factor in the decision, signalling a strong possibility of a rate increase this month.The remarks followed a U.S. Treasury statement that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had met with Ueda and urged “decisive” monetary action to address the weak yen, further strengthening expectations of a Japanese rate hike this month. In a separate speech in northern Japan, hawkish BOJ board member Hajime Takata said the central bank should raise interest rates “nimbly” in response to inflationary pressures rather than follow a fixed semiannual schedule, helping to prevent inflation from overshooting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.23(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.38(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.24(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 157.00 (Psychological level ).
Equities Recap
Asian shares initially gained but gave ground on Thursday as investors awaited fresh U.S. economic data and central bank comments for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will tighten policy this month.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.18% , Hang Seng was down at 0.44%, China A50 was down at 0.03%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as investors assessed the uncertainty surrounding renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes and the potential risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures fell 59 cents, or 0.62%, to $95.04 a barrel at 0509 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 38 cents, or 0.42%, at $90.63.
Gold prices rose on Thursday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields eased, while investors awaited U.S. nonfarm payrolls data that could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,422.00 per ounce by 0630 GMT after hitting a near one-month low in the previous session.U.S. gold futures gained 1.2% to $4,467.60.
