Market Roundup
• New Zealand FPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.6%, 1.0% previous
• New Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Jun) 55.80%, 57.50% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 EU Current Account n.s.a. (May) 14.9B previous
•09:00 EU Current Account (May) 18.1B forecast, 15.7B previous
•10:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.8% forecast,3.2% previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.4%forecast , 2.6% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Jun) -0.1% forecast , 0.1% previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% forecast , 0.3% previous
•10:00 EUCPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.2% previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jun) 2.2% forecast , 2.2% previous
•10:00 EUCPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jun) 3.1% previous
•10:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Jun) 103.07 forecast , 103.13 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Friday as the rebound in energy prices has prompted investors to assume the European Central Bank may need to deliver more than one more rate hike this year.The oil price, which had fallen to its lowest since late February last week, has risen 11% this week, briefly hitting one-month highs above $85 a barrel, as the United States and Iran have escalated attacks on one another in the Gulf, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz. Given the European economy's greater vulnerability to imported energy inflation, euro has come under pressure.Economists believe two more hikes on top of June's are unlikely and some think a number of the big central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will not resort to more increases this year at all. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1437(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Friday as escalating attacks in the Middle East weighed on pound.Iran and the United States exchanged intensifying fire in a week-long escalation that has largely unravelled last month's truce, spurring safe haven bids for the dollar and leading oil prices near one-month highs.Data on Thursday showed U.S. retail sales rose slightly in June as lower gasoline prices weighed on receipts at service stations, but online spending surged, prompting economists to upgrade their second-quarter growth estimates.The economy's resilience was underscored by other data also showing labour market stability. Economists believe the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged later this month after data showed consumer price inflation had cooled in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3444(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Friday as risk appetite remaining subdued amid persistent U.S.-Iran tensions. The Australian dollar also faced headwinds from stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, reinforcing expectations that U.S. interest rates could remain elevated for longer.Geopolitical tensions remained elevated, with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening a broader escalation in strikes on Iran.. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he would support raising interest rates if inflation fails to improve in the near term, though he believes keeping rates unchanged for now remains appropriate following the Fed's June decision.The Federal Reserve is scheduled to decide on interest rates at its July 28-29 meeting. Following softer-than-expected June inflation data, markets have largely priced out the likelihood of a rate hike this month.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6875(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6811(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar remained range bound remained range-bound against yen in Asian trading and is expected to stay subdued ahead of Japan's long holiday weekend. The pair traded in a narrow 162.33–162.40 EBS range, maintaining a sense of equilibrium despite a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar during the previous session.Ongoing demand from Japanese importers, retailers, and safe-haven flows linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to provide support on dips. However, upside remained capped by the threat of Japanese FX intervention.Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Friday reiterated the government's readiness to take decisive action on currency moves when deemed necessaryImmediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
A brutal selloff in chipmaker stocks swept through global markets on Friday, hammering Asian equities and setting the stage for sharp losses in Europe and the U.S. as investors questioned the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 3.39% , KOSPI was down at 0.00 %, China A50 was down at 3.33 %
Commodities Recap
Gold was on track for its biggest weekly loss in six on Friday, as escalating U.S.-Iran clashes lifted oil prices, adding to inflationary pressures and strengthening the case for higher U.S. interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $3,993.22 per ounce by 0758 GMT, having touched its lowest since July 1 earlier in the day. U.S. gold futures for August delivery gained 0.1% to $3,996.90.
Oil prices inched up on Friday after the U.S. and Iran stepped up attacks across the Gulf, with their broken truce limiting oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz and with Tehran asking the Houthi organisation to stand ready to shut the Red Sea export route.
Brent crude futures rose 7 cents, or about 0.08%, to $84.30 a barrel at 0632 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $79.11 a barrel.
