Market Roundup
• Japan Trade Balance (Jun) -406.9B, -120.0B forecast, -391.8B previous
•Japan Exports (YoY) (Jun) 19.3%, 18.6% forecast, 16.8% previous
•Japan Adjusted Trade Balance -0.88T, -0.56T forecast, -0.22T previous
•Japan Imports (YoY) (Jun) 25.4%, 21.0% forecast, 12.5% previous
•Australia MI Leading Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.0%, -0.1% previous
•New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) (Jun) 3.1% , 4.2% previous
•UK CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.6%, 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous
•UK PPI Input (MoM) (Jun) -2.0%, -0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK CPIH (YoY) (Jun) 2.8%, , 3.0% previous
•UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Jun) 0.5%, , 0.7% previous
•UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Jun) 2.6%, , 2.3% previous
•UK PPI Input (YoY) (Jun) 7.3%, , 9.3% previous
•UK PPI Output (YoY) (Jun) 3.5%, , 3.7% previous
•UK RPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Core RPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.3% , 0.2% previous
•UK CPI, n.s.a (Jun) 142.50, 142.40 previous
•UK RPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 3.1% previous
•UK Core RPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.9%, -, 3.0% previous
•UK Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.3%, 0.3% previous
•UK Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.6%, 2.5% forecast, 2.6% previous
•UK PPI Output (MoM) (Jun) 0.0%, -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:30 UK House Price Index (YoY) 3.2% forecast,3.8% previous
•10:00 Belgium Consumer Confidence (Jul)-7 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 17:30 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Wednesday as as investors assessed conflict in the Middle East . U.S. forces said it began striking Iranian military targets for the 11th straight night and Kuwait reported attacks by Iranian drones.Escalating tensions in the Middle East have lifted oil prices and stoked inflation concerns, strengthening expectations of interest rate hikes that led gold to its steepest weekly drop since early June last week.U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that Washington is still willing to negotiate an end to the Iran crisis but Tehran is not serious about talks.Three oil tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea on Tuesday after threats from Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis, raising concerns about energy supply .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1437(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Wednesday as investors digested UK inflation data. British inflation cooled by more than expected last month driven by a fall in petrol prices after a brief de-escalation in the Iran war, but the slowdown offers only temporary relief to new Prime Minister Andy Burnham as he seeks to ease living costs.Consumer prices rose by 2.6% in annual terms in June — the weakest increase since March 2025 and slowing from 2.8% in May, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.British inflation ran lower in June than in the United States, and the euro zone where it stood at 3.5% and 2.8% respectively.Investors expect the BoE to keep its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% next week as it continues to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3454(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged eased slightly on Wednesday as further escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities kept in investors cautious.The U.S. military said late on Tuesday it had concluded its latest round of strikes on Iran, marking the 11th consecutive night of American attacks.Washington said Iran has attacked more than 30 commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the past three months.Oil prices inched higher in early trading on Wednesday as fears of further supply disruptions intensified on further escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities. Australia's consumer price figures are due next week and analysts generally expect core inflation to rise 0.9% in the June quarter and 3.7% for the year, well above the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2% to 3% target band. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6875(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6811(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar hovered near a four-decade high on Wednesday keeping traders alert for possible Japanese intervention.Unless Japan's Ministry of Finance orders another round of currency intervention, USD/JPY appears poised to establish a new, higher trading range above 163.00.Japan signalled its readiness to intervene in currency markets after the yen fell to a 40-year low, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama pledging decisive action if needed.Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said the government stands ready to respond to excessive yen moves at any time, highlighting concerns that the weak currency is driving up import costs and inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 163.26(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.67(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 162.16(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 160.61(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks slipped on Wednesday as rising oil prices raised concerns over Middle East supply disruptions, though broader regional markets gained on strong chip stocks in South Korea and Taiwan.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.37% , Hang Sang down at 1.15 %, China A50 was down at 0.54%
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed to a two-week high on Wednesday, supported by technical buying as investors monitored Middle East tensions and awaited Fed rate guidance.
Spot gold climbed 0.9% to $4,112.70 per ounce by 0705 GMT, having hit its highest level since July 7 earlier in the day. U.S. gold futures for August delivery jumped 1% to $4,116.90.
Oil prices extended gains to six-week highs on Wednesday as fears of supply disruptions grew after continued U.S. strikes on Iran and Red Sea shipping disruptions linked to Houthi threats.
Brent crude futures rose $1.84, or 2.0%, to $92.85 a barrel at 0630 GMT, the highest since June 11. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $1.67, or 2%, to $86.01, its highest since June 12.
