Asia’s Roundup: Dollar eases before inflation report , Asian stocks edges higher Gold slips 1%, Oil dips -August 11h,2025

Market Roundup

•US consumer prices index data due on Tuesday

•US gold futures down 2%

•Risk-on mood spurs further declines for U.S. currency

•Traders expect extension of U.S.-China tariff truce

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT) 

• 08:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.4% forecast,0.2% previous        

• 08:00 Italian CPI (YoY) (Jul) 1.7% forecast,1.7% previous            

• 08:00 Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Jul)                 1.5% previous 

• 08:00 Italian HICP (MoM) (Jul)                 -1.0% forecast,                0.2% previous                   

• 09:00 Italian HICP (YoY) (Jul) 1.7% forecast, 1.8% previous                        

• 09:00 Italian Trade Balance (Jun) 7.120B forecast, 6.163B previous                        

• 09:00  Italian Trade Balance EU (Jun) 0.78B previous    

• 09:00  Greek Unemployment Rate (Jun) 7.9% previous             

Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases(GMT)

• No Events Ahead        

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro gained modestly on Monday  as investors looked ahead to a busy week, including Tuesday’s key July CPI data, the deadline for Washington and Beijing to reach a tariff agreement, and a U.S.-Russia summit on Friday. Investors are watching Tuesday’s U.S. CPI for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, with a stronger-than-expected reading likely to dampen expectations for near-term rate cuts. Markets currently price in about a 90% chance of a September cut and at least one more by year-end.Trade tensions remain in focus as President Donald Trump’s August 12 deadline for a U.S.-China deal approaches, with chip policy at the center of the standoff and expectations high for another extension. Adding to the backdrop, Washington last week imposed tariffs of 10% to 50% on dozens of countries, and levied 40% duties on goods found to be illegally rerouted to conceal their origin . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1784(23.6%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1874(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1638 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1549(38.2%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound held steady on Monday as markets awaited U.S. inflation data that could shape the dollar’s direction. The key release is Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price report, with analysts expecting tariff effects to lift core CPI by 0.3% for the month, pushing the annual rate to 3.0% and further above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. A stronger-than-expected reading could challenge market bets on a September rate cut, though analysts note it would likely take a significantly higher figure to shift sentiment, given that weakening payrolls are now a dominant factor in the outlook. Current market pricing reflects about a 90% chance of a September cut and at least one additional reduction by year-end.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3540(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3584Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3389(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3345(Aug 7th low).

 AUD/USD: The Australian dollar inched higher on Monday as investors looked to RBA policy meet next week .Traders are now turning their attention to the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected. Such a move could pressure the Aussie further, especially amid global risk aversion triggered by U.S. policy shifts.The central bank has stressed a gradual and cautious approach to easing, leading investors to expect rates to remain unchanged at the September meeting, with the next cut likely in November. Markets are fully priced for a move on Tuesday, with a slim chance of an outsized 50 basis point cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6592(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6627 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6520(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6427(38.2%fib).

USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar was little changed on Monday as traders awaited upcoming  key U.S. CPI release. U.S. consumer price data is due Tuesday, with analysts expecting tariff effects to lift core CPI by 0.3% for the month, pushing the annual rate to 3.0% and further above the Fed’s 2% target. Analysts forecast that consumer prices in July rose 2.8% from a year earlier, indicating a moderate pace of inflation. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts increased after weak jobs data, as investors anticipate the central bank will ease policy to support the labor market.Fed funds futures show over a 90% probability of a rate cut at the September meeting, with at least two cuts priced in for this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.04(SMA20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at  146.31(61.8%fib)  a break below could take the pair towards 145.40 (Lower BB).

Equities Recap

  Asian share indexes edged higher on Monday, supported by upbeat corporate earnings that helped sustain lofty valuations in the tech sector.

China’sA 50  up 0. 15%  , Hang Seng was up 0.03%,Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.85%

Commodities Recap

Gold fell 1% on Monday as markets focused on upcoming U.S.-Russia talks over the war in Ukraine and July inflation data, which could provide further clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.

Spot gold was at $3,363.31 per ounce, as of 0703 GMT, after it hit its highest since July 23 on Friday.

Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Monday, extending last week’s more than 4% drop, as investors awaited the outcome of U.S.-Russia talks later this week on the war in Ukraine.

Brent crude futures fell 62 cents, or 0.93%, to $65.97 a barrel by 0631 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 69 cents, or 1.08%, to $63.19.