Bank Indonesia's rate decision will be announced this morning. No change is expected to the reference rate of 7.5%. Going forward, there is no scope for significant BI easing (consensus: 40bps by mid-2016).
BI remains focused on reining in its current account deficit, which is unlikely to improve much (BI forecast for 2015 at 3.3-3.5% of GDP), while the economic slowdown has likely bottomed thanks to higher government spending on infrastructure (BI GDP forecast: 5.4-5.8% in 2015, from 5.02% in 2014).
CPI inflation remains uncomfortably out of the 3-5% target range for 2015 and BI must remain vigilant.
