The Bank of Japan’s September minutes say future rate decisions will weigh economic activity, prices and financial conditions, outlining how policymakers may adjust borrowing costs after September’s increase.
The BOJ’s Policy Board met Sept. 17-18 and announced a 7-2 vote on Sept. 18 to raise its overnight call-rate guideline to around 1.25%. The increase took effect Sept. 24. In the minutes, members discuss adjusting monetary accommodation in response to developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions.
The record does not lay out a sequence of future moves. Instead, the minutes describe a review of how likely the bank’s central outlook is to be realized and what risks could put it off course; those judgments are to shape both when and how quickly the BOJ adjusts policy. That leaves the possibility of another increase open, without specifying an interval or a target date.
At the Oct. 30 meeting, the board voted 8-1 to keep the guideline near 1.25%. Board member Hajime Takata opposed the hold, proposing a move to around 1.5%. The October rate decision left the benchmark unchanged even as the September minutes set out conditions for further adjustment.
The BOJ’s October Outlook, published Nov. 2, also describes a conditional path for future increases. It identifies activity, prices and financial conditions as factors for policy adjustment, and says policymakers should judge the timing and speed of any move against the probability of the central scenario and risks around it. The outlook does not set a date for another increase.
The minutes record views from the September meeting, while the October Outlook updates the bank’s policy path after another rate decision. Together, they describe an approach in which a further increase depends on the BOJ’s assessment of the economy, prices and financial conditions. The bank’s calendar lists Dec. 17-18 for its next policy meeting.
