Bank of Japan Likely to Delay Rate Hike Until July as Economists Eye 1% by September

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to hold off on raising interest rates until at least July, according to a majority of economists, as policymakers assess the impact of recent tightening on Japan’s fragile economic recovery. More than 75% of economists surveyed believe the BOJ’s key interest rate will rise to 1% or higher by September, up from the current three-decade high of 0.75%, highlighting a gradual but cautious shift in Japan’s monetary policy outlook.

Despite this expected increase, the BOJ remains out of step with most global central banks, many of which have spent recent years cutting borrowing costs. Economists anticipate the BOJ will eventually raise rates several more times, with a median forecast for the terminal rate at 1.5%, though opinions vary widely depending on inflation trends, wage growth, and currency movements.

Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has added political uncertainty to the outlook. Known as a fiscal and monetary dove, Takaichi unsettled markets after taking office in October by emphasizing her preference for low interest rates and asserting influence over monetary policy direction. Her plan to dissolve parliament and call a snap general election has further reinforced expectations that the BOJ will avoid aggressive action in the near term, especially as some of her advisers have warned against additional rate hikes.

Most economists polled by Reuters between January 6 and 13 expect the BOJ to keep rates unchanged at its January and March meetings. The central bank raised rates by a quarter point in December, ending an 11-month pause since its previous hike in January 2025. Analysts argue that more time is needed—around six months—to evaluate how the latest increase is affecting the real economy, unless a weaker yen significantly boosts imported inflation.

Among respondents who specified timing, July emerged as the most likely month for the next hike, followed by June. By year-end, the median forecast remains at 1%, although nearly a quarter of economists see rates reaching 1.25%. Overall, expectations suggest one or two rate hikes this year, with moderate risks of the BOJ falling behind the curve in controlling inflation.