Japan Services Producer Prices Rise 3.2% in June, Supporting BOJ Rate Hike Expectations 
ECB Expected to Hold Rates as Middle East Tensions Keep September Hike in Focus 
China Trade Surplus Beats Forecasts in July as Exports Stay Strong 
Singapore Central Bank’s Exchange Rate Policy Explained: Why MAS Uses the S$NEER Instead of Interest Rates 
Oil Prices Set for Steep Weekly Losses as Hormuz Deal Stalls 
Chile Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 4.5% as Inflation and Global Risks Persist 
BOJ Seen Holding Rates at 1% While Keeping Inflation Risk Warning 
Australia Inflation Cools as Core CPI Misses Forecasts, Easing RBA Rate Hike Pressure 
South Korea Raises Interest Rates to 2.75% as Inflation and Weak Won Drive Tightening 
Japan Executives Warn Weak Yen and Currency Volatility Threaten Economy 
Oil Prices Surge as Iran Hormuz Restrictions Renew Supply Fears 
US Stock Futures Rise as Markets Await July Payrolls Data 
Asian Currencies Steady as Markets Await U.S. Jobs Data 
RBA Signals More Rate Hikes Possible as Australia Battles Stubborn Inflation 
US Job Growth Seen Picking Up in July 
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to keep its interest rates unchanged at its upcoming April 27–28 policy meeting, while signaling a possible rate hike as early as June or July. With global markets already pricing out an immediate increase, investor attention is shifting toward the BOJ’s quarterly outlook report and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks for clues on future monetary policy direction.
Analysts believe the central bank will maintain its short-term policy rate at 0.75% but adopt a more hawkish tone. This shift reflects growing concern over inflation risks driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted energy markets and pushed oil prices higher. Japan’s heavy dependence on imported oil makes its economy especially vulnerable to such shocks.
Rising fuel costs, combined with a persistently weak yen, are increasing pressure on businesses to pass higher expenses onto consumers. This trend is keeping inflation above the BOJ’s 2% target for nearly four years. Economists note that changes in corporate pricing behavior could lead to “second-round effects,” where sustained price increases feed into broader inflation across the economy.
While the BOJ does not currently anticipate a full wage-price spiral, policymakers remain cautious. Some board members have emphasized the need for vigilance, warning that delayed action could require more aggressive rate hikes later. As a result, the BOJ may adjust its policy guidance to highlight flexibility in responding to evolving inflation conditions.
According to a Reuters poll, nearly two-thirds of economists expect Japan’s benchmark interest rate to reach 1.0% by the end of June. Meanwhile, the central bank is likely to revise its economic forecasts, lowering growth projections due to rising energy costs while increasing its inflation outlook for fiscal 2026.
Despite concerns about global supply disruptions, including potential impacts from the Strait of Hormuz, the BOJ is expected to treat these risks as external factors rather than core elements of its baseline scenario. Overall, the central bank appears committed to gradually normalizing interest rates while closely monitoring inflation trends and economic stability.
