Bitcoin Enters Bear Territory: Warning Signs Flash After 41% Crash

After a steep 41% drop from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 to the $66,000–$74,000 range as of February 2026, Bitcoin is showing traditional early bear market characteristics. Although earlier high prices, demand momentum has clearly stalled; rather, apparent demand growth is flat and spot buying is unable to keep up with prior speculative surges—thereby changing the market dynamic from accumulation to distribution. One of the most obvious indicators that the enormous bull run may have run itself out is this declining fundamental demand.

Several major technological and on-chain signs are supporting the negative attitude. Reflecting waning interest in leveraged long positions and a cooling of bullish conviction, perpetual funding rates on markets have been trending consistently lower. More clearly, Bitcoin has traded below its 365-day moving average for first time since the early 2022 bear market, signifying a clear turnaround in long-run trend momentum. Patterns on weekly charts reveal bearish trends including rising whale exchange inflows, Gaussian channel median collapses, RSI and MACD deeply negative, and Kumo twists (Ichimoku), together painting a picture of fragility and possible more aggressive downward pressure.

Bitcoin bear markets have historically lasted 12–18 months (e.g., 405 days in 2014, 509 days in 2018), albeit post-halving cycles have sometimes witnessed shorter drawdown phases of around 12 months before new accumulation starts. The present environment implies a potential choppy consolidation or further drop lasting 3–6 months, with any significant recovery possibly postponed till mid-2026—unless aggressive Federal Reserve rate reductions offer unforeseen liquidity assistance and reawakening risk appetite.